Will Airbnb's LATAM or APAC nights growth decelerate to single digits in any quarter through Q2 2026?

Q4 2025 results eliminate one-third of the resolution window and both regions cleared comfortably: LATAM high-teens, APAC mid-teens. This narrows the question to just 4 region-quarter observations (Q1 and Q2 2026 across LATAM and APAC) instead of 6. The LATAM floor appears to be high-teens based on Q2 and Q4 2025 data, which is 7-8pp above the 10% threshold. APAC's mid-teens consistency across all four quarters of 2025 makes single-digit deceleration even less likely. Brazil's rise to top-5 market suggests LATAM structural strength. The absence of RNPL internationally represents an untapped tailwind. With only 2 quarters remaining and no catalyst identified, probability drops meaningfully from the pre-earnings 17%.

The Q4 data confirms that LATAM's quarterly variance operates within a high-teens to low-20s range, not a range that approaches single digits. APAC showed mid-teens in all four quarters of 2025 -- that's exceptional stability. The resolution window shrinking from 6 data points to 4 mechanically reduces compound probability. Hotels scaling at 2x platform rate adds incremental nights globally, supporting both regions. Management's 'at least low double digits' FY2026 outlook suggests confidence in sustained growth. The gap to threshold (7-8pp for LATAM, 5-7pp for APAC) remains too wide for organic deceleration in just 2 quarters absent a macro shock.

This is now a very narrow question: can either LATAM or APAC decelerate by 7-8pp or 5-7pp respectively in Q1 or Q2 2026? The 2025 full-year pattern shows no directional deceleration -- LATAM oscillated within high-teens to low-20s, APAC held mid-teens consistently. The structural tailwinds are meaningful: Brazil ascended to top-5 market and second-largest first-time booker source, RNPL hasn't launched internationally yet, and hotels are scaling at 2x platform rate. Platform nights grew 10% in Q4 (strongest of 2025), suggesting broad-based momentum. With only 2 quarters and no identified catalyst, this becomes a tail-risk-only scenario.

The Q4 earnings update provides three critical data points: (1) both regions cleared Q4 comfortably, (2) LATAM's floor is high-teens not mid-teens, and (3) the resolution window just shrunk by one-third. The math is now simpler: 4 observations (2 quarters × 2 regions) instead of 6. APAC's four-quarter mid-teens streak suggests this is a stable growth regime, not a decelerating one. The Brazil data point is particularly meaningful -- becoming the second-largest source of first-time bookers behind only the US validates that LATAM growth is underpinned by structural adoption, not cyclical tailwinds. I estimate per-quarter probability at ~2-3% for each region, yielding roughly 8-12% compound.

I'm weighting the LATAM volatility signal slightly higher than other models. While Q4's high-teens result confirms a floor, it also confirms that LATAM does experience 4-5pp swings quarter-to-quarter. If conditions deteriorated (macro, currency, etc.), a further swing from high-teens toward single digits is not impossible. However, APAC's stability acts as a counterweight -- it would need to break a four-quarter pattern. The 2-quarter window reduces the number of opportunities for a single-digit print. RNPL international launch could actually accelerate growth in Q1 or Q2 if it rolls out. My estimate is toward the higher end of the 8-12% range.

The FY2026 guidance ('at least low double digits') is an important overlay. Management wouldn't guide to low double digits if they expected LATAM or APAC to decelerate to single digits in H1 2026 -- those are the high-growth regions offsetting mature market weakness. The Q4 121.9M nights (10% growth, strongest of 2025) suggests platform momentum is building, not fading. APAC's mid-teens consistency and Brazil's top-5 market ascent are structural positives. The remaining resolution window is narrow (2 quarters) and the gap to threshold is wide (7-8pp for LATAM, 5-7pp for APAC). This requires a meaningful negative surprise, not just normal deceleration.

Q4 data shows LATAM high-teens and APAC mid-teens, both well above 10%. Only 2 quarters remain. LATAM floor is high-teens based on Q2 and Q4, which is 7-8pp above threshold. APAC held mid-teens for four straight quarters. Brazil top-5 market validates LATAM strength. No catalyst for rapid deceleration to single digits identified.

The data is clear: LATAM oscillates high-teens to low-20s, APAC is stable mid-teens, and Q4 confirmed this pattern. Only 2 quarters remain and both regions are 5-8pp above the threshold. Management guided FY2026 to 'at least low double digits' and noted hotels scaling 2x platform rate. The structural setup makes single-digit deceleration in just 2 quarters highly unlikely absent a macro shock.

The Q4 results reduce the resolution window by one-third and confirm both regions remain well above the threshold. LATAM's high-teens Q4 result establishes a floor that's nearly double the 10% threshold. APAC's mid-teens streak across all of 2025 suggests this is a structural growth rate, not a decelerating trajectory. The Brazil data point (top-5 market, second-largest first-time bookers) is meaningful structural validation. With only Q1 and Q2 2026 remaining, the compound probability drops materially.