Will the Fifth Circuit affirm the New Orleans trial court ruling against Airbnb by end of 2026?

The trial court's comprehensive rejection (10 of 11 claims) creates a strong appellate record. However, the Section 230 defense receives de novo review at the circuit level. The Fifth Circuit is historically business-friendly, which cuts in Airbnb's favor on Section 230. But the court is also deferential to local government authority on regulatory matters. The timing question is significant: appeal filed after September 2025, briefing typically 3-6 months, then argument, then decision. For a ruling by end of 2026, approximately 15 months from trial ruling to resolution date is plausible but not guaranteed. Estimated ~60% chance court rules within timeframe, ~55% affirmation if reached. Combined: ~0.33.

Breaking into components: (A) ~55-65% probability ruling issued by Dec 31, 2026 given Fifth Circuit median appeal-to-decision time of 12-18 months; (B) ~50-55% affirmation conditional on ruling, as the trial court's thorough 10-of-11 dismissal creates strong record but recent judicial trend toward narrowing Section 230 protections is not yet established at circuit level. The Fifth Circuit's dual tendencies -- business-friendly but government-deferential -- create genuine uncertainty on the Section 230 legal question. Combined: ~0.60 * 0.52 = 0.31.

The resolution criteria creates asymmetric structure: Airbnb effectively wins (NO) if no ruling is issued OR if ruling is favorable. This stacks odds toward NO. Timing risk alone creates substantial NO probability -- even if merits strongly favor the city, delay resolves NO. Being more conservative on timeline for a complex novel legal question: ~40% probability of ruling by deadline. Conditional on ruling: comprehensive trial court record and trend toward narrowing Section 230 suggests 55% affirmation. Combined: 0.40 * 0.55 = 0.22. Timing risk is the dominant factor deflating YES probability.

Two factors dominate: timing and merits. Timing: appeal filed after September 2025, deadline December 31, 2026 -- roughly 15 months maximum. Fifth Circuit dockets vary but 12-18 months for a fully briefed appeal is typical. Novel Section 230 question could be fast-tracked (high public interest) or delayed (careful deliberation). Setting timing at 55%. Merits: trial court demolished Airbnb's case -- 10 of 11 claims dismissed. While Fifth Circuit reviews legal questions de novo, the breadth of rejection suggests robust city legal position. Section 230 faces headwinds from broader trend of narrowing platform immunity. Estimating 55% affirmation if reached. Combined: 0.55 * 0.55 = 0.30.

The 10-of-11 dismissal is a powerful signal -- courts that lose on that many claims usually struggle on appeal. The Section 230 de novo review is the primary avenue for reversal, but the current judicial mood toward platform regulation favors narrowing Section 230. On timing, I am moderately optimistic at 60% -- this is a significant case with real regulatory implications and the Fifth Circuit has a reputation for relatively efficient processing. On merits, affirmation at 58%. Combined: 0.60 * 0.58 = 0.35.

The Fifth Circuit's dual nature matters enormously. It is the most business-friendly circuit -- historically protective of corporate interests. But it is also fiercely protective of state and local government authority against federal overreach, and Section 230 is a federal statute. This case pits those tendencies directly against each other. The trial court's comprehensive ruling favors affirmation, but the Fifth Circuit's business orientation could lead to a sympathetic hearing for Airbnb's Section 230 arguments. Timing: ~55% ruling by deadline. Merits: ~48% affirmation, giving weight to Fifth Circuit's business-friendly disposition. Combined: 0.55 * 0.48 = 0.26.

Trial court went 10-of-11 against Airbnb -- near-total loss. Appeal timeline of ~15 months is tight for the Fifth Circuit. Timing probability: 55%. Affirmation probability given ruling: 52% (strong trial record but novel legal question with no circuit precedent). Combined: ~0.29.

Key issue is timing risk. Resolution requires both a ruling AND an affirmation by December 31, 2026. Appeals courts are typically slow. No ruling = NO resolution. The Fifth Circuit is business-friendly, which helps Airbnb on Section 230. But the 10/11 dismissal is hard to overcome on appeal. Timing: 50%. Affirmation if ruling: 50%. Combined: 0.25.

The comprehensive trial court rejection (10/11 claims) establishes strong appellate record favoring the city. Section 230 review is de novo but the trend is toward narrowing platform protections. Fifth Circuit timing is uncertain but 15 months is plausible for this type of case. Estimated 55% timing, 53% affirmation conditional on ruling. Combined: ~0.29.