Will Airbnb's FY2026 revenue guidance imply growth above 12% YoY?

Management's 'at least low double digits' language for FY2026 creates ambiguity that favors YES. 'Low double digits' commonly means 10-13%, and 'at least' establishes a floor. Q1 2026 guidance of +14-16% YoY is well above the 12% threshold and sets a strong baseline. The resolution window extends to May 31, 2026 — management could raise full-year guidance at Q1 earnings if the quarter beats (likely given their 100% beat rate over 2 years). The question asks if guidance 'implies' >12%, not whether management explicitly commits to it. Q1 at 14-16% strongly implies the full year could exceed 12%, especially given product-cycle tailwinds (200-300 bps) persisting.

The Q4 2025 revenue beat of $80M above guidance (+12% vs +7-10% guided) and the Q1 2026 guidance at +14-16% represent a material shift from the 8-10% trajectory that anchored the pre-earnings forecast. FY2025 came in at $12.2B, so >12% growth requires $13.7B+ for FY2026. Q1 at $2.61B midpoint annualizes to $10.4B, but Airbnb is seasonal. The question is whether 'at least low double digits' implies >12%. I interpret this as 30-40% probability — management's language is cautious enough to include 10-12% but optimistic enough to suggest upside. The 3-time guidance raise pattern in 2025 supports a potential raise at Q1 earnings.

I weight this higher than the other Opus runs because 'implied' guidance is the operative word. Management does not need to say '12.5%' explicitly — Q1 at +14-16% combined with 'at least low double digits' for the full year creates a mathematical implication. If Q1 beats at +16-17% (consistent with historical pattern), and management maintains 'at least low double digits,' the market will interpret this as >12% full-year trajectory. The product-cycle tailwinds quantified at 200-300 bps are structural, not one-time, giving management confidence to guide higher. The NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP is narrowing — revenue +12% in Q4 closes the gap between aspiration and reality.

'At least low double digits' is deliberately vague. Management could mean 10%, 11%, 12%, or 13%+. The phrase does not clearly imply >12%. However, Q1 guidance at +14-16% is a strong positive signal — it is the highest quarterly guidance in 3+ years. The question is whether full-year guidance follows Q1's strength. Against this: Airbnb is seasonal, and Q1 is a strong quarter. Q4 2025 was +12%, but that followed +10% in Q3 and +7-10% guidance — oscillation, not sustained acceleration. I assign moderate probability because the resolution criteria include any disclosure through May 31 that implies >12%, and a Q1 beat could trigger a raise.

The FY2025 actual revenue of $12.2B is significantly higher than the pre-earnings estimate of $11.1-11.2B, which means the arithmetic for >12% growth shifts favorably. $12.2B * 1.12 = $13.66B. If Q1 is $2.61B and full-year is 'at least low double digits,' the low end (10%) implies $13.4B and the high end (13%) implies $13.8B. The range straddles the 12% threshold. Given management's pattern of beating and raising, the upper half of this range is more likely than the lower half. However, 'low double digits' is not the same as 'mid double digits,' so I do not go above 35%.

I am slightly more conservative because 'at least low double digits' could be management setting a low bar to over-deliver. The fact that they did not say 'mid double digits' or '12%+' suggests they are not confident in sustained >12% growth. North America is still mid-single-digit nights growth, and the international ADR headwind persists. Q1 at +14-16% benefits from a 3pt FX tailwind, which is transitory. Stripping that out, organic growth is closer to 11-13% for Q1. The 200-300 bps product-cycle contribution is real but not necessarily recurring in all quarters. I see this as a coin-flip leaning slightly NO.

Management said 'at least low double digits' for FY2026. Q1 is guided +14-16%. That is well above 12%. If the question is whether guidance implies >12%, the answer is likely yes. The resolution criteria do not require management to say '12.5%' — they just need to imply it. Q1 guidance does that clearly.

Q4 revenue +12% beat the guided +7-10%. Q1 guided +14-16%. Full year 'at least low double digits.' The pattern is clear: management is guiding conservatively and delivering above. If Q1 beats again, they will likely raise the full-year guide at Q1 earnings. The resolution window to May 31 captures that. I assign 40% probability that by May 31, some guidance or commentary clearly implies >12%.

'Low double digits' is 10-13%. The 12% threshold is in the middle of that range. It's a coin-flip whether management means the low end or high end. Q1 at +14-16% suggests they are comfortable with the high end, but Q1 is seasonal. I split the difference at 33%.