Will Airbnb report negative YoY North America nights growth in any quarter through Q2 2026?

Q4 2025 NA nights were positive at mid-single-digits, eliminating Q4 from the resolution window. Only Q1 and Q2 2026 remain. Total nights grew +10% in Q4 (strongest of 2025), revenue beat by $80M, and product-cycle tailwinds (RNPL, fee changes) added 200bps and persist through Q1-Q2. Q1 2026 guided at +14-16% revenue implies healthy platform growth. The previously unresolved structural-vs-cyclical debate now tilts toward cyclical recovery given the acceleration. With only two quarters remaining and strong momentum, negative growth requires a severe shock.

The Q4 data is materially positive: nights +10%, revenue +12%, Q1 guidance at +14-16%. Product-cycle effects add 200bps and are still rolling out. However, Q1 remains seasonally vulnerable and two quarters still provide two chances for a miss. The supply-demand imbalance hasn't been resolved (though not mentioned in Q4 update). I weight the narrowed window and strong momentum heavily but maintain some probability for macro shock in Q1 or unexpected Q2 weakness. Hotels growing 2x platform rate adds incremental nights buffer.

The trend has shifted from 'positive but slowing' to 'reaccelerating with product tailwinds.' Q4 2025 was the strongest quarter of 2025 at +10% total nights. Management committed to 'at least low double digits' FY2026 revenue growth. Guest Favorites at 50% penetration driving better matching and repeat bookings. The moat trajectory upgraded from Stable-to-Widening (Tentative). With Q4 positive, Q1 guided strong, and product effects persisting, the path to negative in Q1 or Q2 2026 is highly improbable absent catastrophic macro.

Q4 eliminated one of three quarters and it was positive. The resolution window just got 33% smaller and the data point we got was favorable. Revenue beat expectations, nights accelerated to +10%, and Q1 2026 is guided at double-digit growth. The 200bps tailwind from product changes is tangible and ongoing. Two quarters remain but the baseline shifted from 'slowing positive' to 'accelerating with structural product drivers.' Unlikely to see negative unless severe macro disruption.

The earnings update fundamentally changed the probability landscape. Q4 positive eliminates the highest-probability miss (seasonally strong Q4 in the window). Q1 and Q2 remain but both benefit from the same product-cycle tailwinds that drove Q4's beat. Hotels scaling at 2x platform rate adds diversified nights growth. Brazil in top-5 shows international demand supporting total platform. Management's 'at least low double digits' FY2026 language is confident. The previous 18% assumed three quarters at risk with slowing trend; now it's two quarters with accelerating trend and quantified tailwinds. Sharp downgrade in probability.

While Q4 was positive and momentum is strong, I'm slightly more cautious than run 2. Q1 2026 is still seasonally vulnerable and was the weakest quarter in 2025. The guidance is for revenue (+14-16%) not nights specifically, and revenue can be driven by pricing or mix rather than volume. The product tailwinds (+200bps) are real but may be partially one-time effects (fee migration, cancellation policy changes). Two quarters still provide two independent chances for a miss if macro deteriorates sharply. That said, the probability has dropped significantly from 18%.

Q4 positive mid-single-digits eliminates one quarter. Strong momentum: +10% nights, +12% revenue, beat expectations. Q1 guided +14-16%. Product tailwinds (+200bps) continuing. Only two quarters left. Negative unlikely.

Q4 was positive but two quarters remain. Q1 seasonally weak. Product tailwinds help but not guaranteed to prevent negative if macro shock hits. Hotels growing fast adds buffer. Probability dropped from 18% but not eliminated.

Trend reaccelerating. Q4 strongest of 2025. Q1 guided strong. Guest Favorites driving repeat bookings. FY2026 'at least low double digits.' Negative growth very unlikely with this momentum and only two quarters left.