Will Adobe's consumer segment (Business Professionals & Consumers) show YoY revenue growth below 5% in any quarter by Q2 FY2026?

B2C segment grew +15% YoY in Q4 FY2025 ($1.72B). For growth to fall below 5% within 2 quarters requires a >10pp deceleration -- historically unprecedented for subscription software at this scale absent a major exogenous shock. Management guidance of $7.35-7.4B for FY2026 B2C implies continued solid growth. Express and Firefly are creating new consumer engagement vectors. While 3 lenses identify B2C as the concentrated vulnerability, the structural threats (AI competition, declining brand indicators) are slow-moving forces, not catalysts for a 2-quarter collapse.

The math makes this very unlikely. Q4 FY2025 B2C revenue was $1.72B. Assuming Q4 FY2024 was ~$1.50B (15% growth), Q1 FY2025 was likely ~$1.55-1.60B. Even if Q1 FY2026 revenue was completely flat sequentially at $1.72B, YoY growth would still be ~7-11%. To drop below 5%, you'd need actual sequential DECLINE combined with tough comps. FTC case is the most plausible shock mechanism but resolution timeline makes Q1-Q2 impact extremely unlikely. Google Trends declining for 'Adobe' are early demand indicators, not revenue-contemporaneous signals.

The FY2026 guidance math is informative: $7.35-7.4B for B2C implies ~6.5-7.5% growth over the ~$6.88B FY2025 run-rate. Even the LOW end of guidance implies full-year growth above 5%. For any individual quarter to dip below 5% while the full year averages ~7%, you'd need extreme quarterly lumpiness -- a very weak quarter offset by a very strong one. This pattern is unusual for subscription revenue which is inherently smooth. The bear case (AI displacement + FTC churn) is valid structurally but the 2-quarter window is far too short for these forces to produce a >10pp deceleration from current 15%.

Three lenses flag B2C as the concentrated vulnerability, but vulnerability is not the same as imminent collapse. Current +15% YoY growth provides a massive buffer. Express onboarded 6,000 new businesses (+50% QoQ), students with Express premium grew 85% YoY, and freemium MAU grew 35% YoY -- these are ACCELERATING metrics within the supposedly vulnerable segment. For growth to drop below 5% in 2 quarters, you'd need these growth vectors to simultaneously stall while existing subscribers churn at unprecedented rates. The analysis supports a medium-term bear case, not a near-term one.

The most plausible catalyst for rapid deceleration is FTC resolution making cancellation trivially easy, releasing suppressed churn. But FTC proceedings typically take months to years, and even if resolved tomorrow, the churn impact would be spread across multiple quarters, not concentrated enough to push a single quarter below 5%. Without FTC, organic deceleration from AI competition is gradual -- Canva and Midjourney are growing but haven't shown evidence of directly displacing Adobe subscriptions at scale. Revenue is a lagging indicator of mindshare shifts; even declining Google Trends would take 4-6+ quarters to translate to sub-5% growth.

The unresolved debate about friction-driven retention is the key uncertainty. If consumer retention is partially friction-driven (FTC case targets cancellation mechanisms), true underlying churn is higher than reported. But even if underlying churn is 2-3pp higher than apparent, the growth rate would drop from 15% to maybe 12-13% -- still far above the 5% threshold. You'd need both: (1) FTC resolution releasing suppressed churn AND (2) simultaneous new subscriber acquisition collapse AND (3) all within 2 quarters. The probability of this triple coincidence is very low. Myth Meter notes that even B2C concerns are 'overblown based on current metrics.'

15% YoY growth to below 5% in 2 quarters is an extreme deceleration. Management guides $7.35-7.4B for FY2026 B2C, implying continued growth well above 5%. AI competition is real but gradual. Express and freemium metrics accelerating. Very unlikely in this timeframe.

Consumer segment vulnerability is real but the question has a tight 2-quarter timeframe. Subscription revenue is inherently smooth. Even the most bearish lens (Gravy Gauge: consumer is FRAGILE) doesn't suggest imminent revenue collapse. The 5% threshold requires near-stagnation from a 15% base in just 2 quarters. No identified catalyst is fast enough.

The wide gap between current growth (15%) and the threshold (5%) is the dominant factor. While 3 lenses converge on consumer vulnerability, the structural threats they identify (AI competition, declining brand, low switching costs) operate on multi-year timelines, not quarters. Q1 FY2026 earnings (mid-March 2026) is weeks away and would be the first data point. Probability of a shock large enough to produce sub-5% growth in that quarter is minimal.