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ADBE Forecast Markets

Adobe Inc.

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
36%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Mar 12, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will the FTC/DOJ dark patterns case against Adobe (Case 222-3055) reach a settlement or consent decree by December 31, 2026?

Active
53%
Likely Yes
55%53%after Q1 FY2026 earnings update
85% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Adobe disclose a net revenue retention rate or voluntary churn rate metric by Q2 FY2026 earnings?

Active
7%
Likely No
12%7%after Q1 FY2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Adobe's FY2026 net new Digital Media ARR fall below the $2.6B guided level?

Active
13%
Likely No
21%13%after Q1 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Adobe's AI-first standalone ARR exceed $500M by Q2 FY2026 earnings?

Active
51%
Likely Yes
28%51%after Q1 FY2026 earnings update
82% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Adobe's consumer segment (Business Professionals & Consumers) show YoY revenue growth below 5% in any quarter by Q2 FY2026?

Active
3%
Likely No
7%3%after Q1 FY2026 earnings
99% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Adobe complete the Semrush acquisition by June 30, 2026?

Active
87%
Likely Yes
77%87%after Q1 FY2026 earnings
96% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will Adobe's non-GAAP operating margin fall below 44% in any quarter of FY2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
11%15%after Q1 FY2026 earnings
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will Adobe's Q1 FY2026 revenue exceed the $6.30B high end of guidance?

Resolved
60%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.160
Mar 12, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Adobe's Q1 FY2026 revenue exceed the $6.30B high end of guidance?
YESBrier: 0.16
Jul 15, 2026
Will Adobe disclose a net revenue retention rate or voluntary churn rate metric by Q2 FY2026 earnings?
Prediction: 7%
Jul 15, 2026
Will Adobe's AI-first standalone ARR exceed $500M by Q2 FY2026 earnings?
Prediction: 51%
Jul 15, 2026
Will Adobe's consumer segment (Business Professionals & Consumers) show YoY revenue growth below 5% in any quarter by Q2 FY2026?
Prediction: 3%
Jul 15, 2026
Will Adobe complete the Semrush acquisition by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 87%
Dec 31, 2026
Will Adobe's FY2026 net new Digital Media ARR fall below the $2.6B guided level?
Prediction: 13%
Dec 31, 2026
Will Adobe's non-GAAP operating margin fall below 44% in any quarter of FY2026?
Prediction: 15%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the FTC/DOJ dark patterns case against Adobe (Case 222-3055) reach a settlement or consent decree by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 53%