Will the FTC/DOJ dark patterns case against Adobe (Case 222-3055) reach a settlement or consent decree by December 31, 2026?

The case has been active since June 2024 and survived MTD in May 2025. Named executive defendants (Wadhwani, Sawhney) significantly increase settlement pressure through personal liability exposure. The FTC's January 2026 ANPRM on Click-to-Cancel rulemaking creates a regulatory backdrop where Adobe would prefer a negotiated resolution. With trial originally scheduled for June 2025, the case is well into merits phase. Historical FTC enforcement actions against major tech companies typically settle within 1-3 years. By December 2026, the case will be 2.5 years old with strong structural incentives for resolution.

Trial was scheduled June 2025 but current status is unclear -- a critical data gap. If trial was postponed for settlement talks, that's bullish for YES. If postponed due to complex discovery, suggests slower timeline. Adobe's 95% subscription revenue model means cancellation flow changes are existential -- both increasing pressure to settle (remove uncertainty) and incentivizing aggressive litigation (protect core model). The Click-to-Cancel ANPRM adds secondary pressure. Named executive personal liability is genuinely powerful, but the data gap on trial status introduces material uncertainty about where the case actually stands.

The strongest case for NO: Adobe has essentially unlimited legal resources relative to this case and the complaint targets their most popular subscription plan -- the business model itself. Companies fight hardest when core revenue mechanics are at stake. ROSCA requires proving specific intent elements that are genuinely contested. Even with MTD denied, Adobe may believe they prevail at trial. Named executives also create a dynamic where settling implies individual wrongdoing, potentially deterring settlement. However, the >80% base rate for FTC cases settling keeps this near coin-flip. The question is timing within the December 2026 window, not eventual outcome.

FTC cases almost always settle -- that's the baseline. Named executive defendants make resolution faster because personal liability creates urgency beyond corporate litigation calculus. MTD denial means Adobe cannot escape on procedural grounds. The Click-to-Cancel ANPRM creates additional incentive: settle now on known terms rather than face potentially harsher industry-wide rules in 2027-2028. With trial already scheduled for June 2025 and the case well into merits, 10 more months is sufficient time for resolution. The 4/4 cross-lens unanimity on this as highest-priority trigger reflects how central the case is to Adobe's position.

The 'trial was scheduled June 2025, current status unclear' data gap is the crucial unknown. If trial happened and Adobe won, this resolves NO. If postponed for settlement, that's bullish. But if postponed due to procedural complexity, the case is moving slowly. Adobe's incentive is to delay -- every month of delay is another month collecting ETFs from their most popular plan at 95% subscription revenue. Courts move slowly in complex cases. Even if both sides want to settle, consent decree negotiations against a $200B+ company often take 6-12 months. December 2026 is a specific deadline that constrains the probability.

Weighing settlement pressure factors (named individuals, denied MTD, FTC Click-to-Cancel ANPRM, FTC institutional preference for settlements) against delay factors (massive stakes for core business model, unlimited legal resources, case complexity). The settlement pressure factors slightly outweigh. The FTC's high settlement base rate (>80% of enforcement actions) is the strongest anchor, adjusted downward for the specific December 2026 timing constraint and Adobe's incentive to protect subscription mechanics. Insider activity shows no unusual patterns suggesting imminent settlement.

FTC cases typically settle. Named executive defendants (Wadhwani, Sawhney) create personal liability pressure beyond corporate calculus. MTD denied means Adobe cannot escape. Case is 2.5 years old by resolution date -- reasonable timeline. Biggest risk is Adobe fighting to protect core subscription model. But personal liability for named executives tips the scale toward resolution.

Data gap on trial status since June 2025 is a red flag -- if settlement were imminent, it would likely be public. Adobe has both incentive and resources to delay given 95% subscription revenue at stake. Complex federal cases often run 3-5 years. The 10-month remaining window is tight for federal litigation of this magnitude and complexity.

FTC enforcement actions settle at >80% base rate. Named executive defendants increase urgency for resolution. Trial was already scheduled -- case is in mature litigation phase. But resolving by specific date (December 2026) is harder to predict than eventual resolution. Slight lean toward YES given case maturity and settlement pressure, but uncertainty is high.