Will Adobe disclose a net revenue retention rate or voluntary churn rate metric by Q2 FY2026 earnings?

Q1 FY2026 was the first of two remaining opportunities for Adobe to disclose churn or NRR metrics, and they did not. This is strongly consistent with the base case that Adobe will not voluntarily disclose. The resolution window has narrowed from 2 quarters to just 1 (Q2 FY2026, expected June 2026). Strong Q1 results (+15% CC B2C growth, 80M freemium MAU) actually reduce disclosure incentive -- when aggregate numbers look good, management avoids adding metrics that could invite scrutiny. The FTC case was not mentioned, removing the forced-disclosure path for Q1. For Q2 to trigger YES, either: (a) the FTC forces disclosure through settlement terms in the next ~3 months, or (b) management makes an unprecedented voluntary decision. Both are very unlikely.

The prior of 0.12 was set with two remaining quarters of opportunity. One has now passed with zero disclosure signals. Bayesian update: the probability should decrease roughly in proportion to the elimination of one opportunity window, adjusted for any signal content. The Q1 non-disclosure is informative -- it wasn't just silent, it actively demonstrated Adobe's continued commitment to NOT reporting retention metrics. Management reported ARR growth, segment revenue, and freemium MAU without any retention decomposition. The only remaining path is FTC settlement with mandatory disclosure terms landing before Q2 earnings (~3 months), which requires both settlement and specific disclosure terms -- a conjunction that is very unlikely in this timeframe. Slight residual probability for an unexpected investor day or strategic disclosure decision.

Adobe has never disclosed NRR or churn metrics in its history as a subscription company. Q1 FY2026 continued this pattern. The CEO transition actually makes voluntary disclosure LESS likely in Q2 -- new leadership won't introduce controversial new metrics in their first quarter at the helm. The FTC case being completely absent from Q1 discussion means no forced-disclosure path is imminent. Even if FTC settlement were announced tomorrow, the terms would likely have a compliance period measured in months, not requiring immediate Q2 disclosure. The base rate for a company with zero history of metric disclosure voluntarily adopting it is extremely low. This is one of the highest-confidence predictions in the batch.

The Q1 earnings call provided a clear data point: Adobe had the opportunity to disclose retention metrics and chose not to. With only one quarter remaining (Q2, June 2026), the probability of disclosure has materially decreased. The accelerating B2C growth (+15% CC) and 80M freemium MAU give management alternative metrics to point to, reducing pressure for retention transparency. No analyst on the Q1 call appears to have pressed specifically for NRR disclosure. The FTC pathway to forced disclosure requires settlement + specific terms + compliance within 3 months -- an extremely tight timeline. Residual probability accounts for an unexpected investor presentation or court-ordered disclosure.

While Q1 passed without disclosure as expected, I want to leave slightly more room for surprise than the lowest estimates. Possible pathways to YES still include: (1) New CEO decides to differentiate leadership with a transparency initiative at Q2 earnings; (2) an analyst specifically demands NRR at Q2 and management decides to provide a figure; (3) FTC case developments between now and June force partial disclosure. These are individually unlikely but collectively provide some residual probability. The 80M freemium MAU metric is essentially a retention proxy that Adobe is comfortable reporting -- they may decide to report a conversion rate or retention rate for freemium cohorts specifically, which could technically resolve this market YES depending on interpretation.

I'm anchoring on the structural analysis: Adobe has systematically avoided churn/NRR disclosure for years. Q1 FY2026 confirmed this pattern continues. The market resolves in roughly 4 months. For YES to occur, something unprecedented must happen in a very short window. The strong Q1 results remove the 'disclosure as damage control' motivation. The CEO transition makes bold metric changes unlikely. The FTC is silent. I see essentially no credible pathway to YES at this point. The 6% reflects the irreducible uncertainty that something truly unexpected could occur -- a leaked court filing, an unexpected regulatory development, or a dramatic strategic pivot.

Q1 passed without disclosure. Only Q2 remains. Adobe has no history of disclosing churn/NRR. Strong results reduce incentive. FTC not mentioned. Very unlikely to resolve YES.

Near-zero probability. Adobe has never disclosed these metrics. Q1 reconfirmed the pattern. CEO transition makes it less likely. FTC case dormant on earnings call. Only 4 months remain. Essentially no credible path to YES.

Very low probability but leaving some room for surprise. Possible paths: FTC settlement with disclosure requirements, new CEO transparency push, analyst pressure at Q2. Each individually unlikely but collectively nonzero. Prior of 0.12 was with 2 quarters; with only 1 remaining, approximately halving is appropriate.