Will Adobe disclose a net revenue retention rate or voluntary churn rate metric by Q2 FY2026 earnings?

Adobe has NEVER disclosed NRR or churn metrics despite being an outlier among large-cap SaaS companies. Three independent lenses identified this as the single most critical data gap, yet Adobe has resisted disclosure through multiple earnings cycles. The FTC lawsuit is the only realistic forcing mechanism, but the case timeline -- filed June 2024, now ~20 months in -- makes a resolution that mandates public disclosure by June 2026 tight. Companies rarely voluntarily disclose previously withheld metrics within a 4-month window absent a confirmed forcing function. Adobe's strong incentive to avoid disclosure (if churn metrics are unfavorable, it weakens both competitive position and FTC defense) further suppresses the probability.

Evaluating each disclosure path independently: (1) Voluntary earnings disclosure -- Adobe has had multiple quarters to do this and consistently declined; near-zero probability. (2) SEC filing -- no precedent in Adobe's MD&A; near-zero. (3) Investor presentation -- no known scheduled investor day. (4) FTC discovery becoming public -- courts often seal commercially sensitive data; even if FTC obtains churn data, public availability by June 2026 is uncertain. (5) FTC settlement requiring disclosure -- settlements take time to negotiate and often include phase-in periods. Two remaining earnings calls (March Q1, June Q2) are potential venues but Adobe's track record is consistent non-disclosure. No insider activity suggesting impending disclosure.

Steelmanning the YES case: FTC filed June 2024, putting us ~20 months in -- approaching the 1-2 year range where many FTC consumer protection cases settle. Settlement terms in cancellation-difficulty cases commonly include enhanced transparency requirements, which could mandate churn or retention disclosure. Adobe's management may calculate that proactively disclosing a favorable NRR number gives narrative control ahead of forced disclosure. The Regulatory Reader lens suggests retention is product-driven (DURABLE), implying actual churn may be low -- making disclosure strategically advantageous. The resolution criteria is broad -- any segment-level retention rate counts. However, even with these considerations, the base rate of previously-withheld metrics suddenly appearing within 4 months remains very low.

Adobe has never disclosed NRR and they will not start now voluntarily. Years of investor requests and peer pressure have not moved the needle. The FTC case is the only realistic forcing mechanism, and FTC cases do not resolve that fast -- two earnings calls remain (March and June) and neither will likely include NRR disclosure unless FTC settlement terms mandate it. No insider activity suggests impending disclosure. This is solidly a NO with a small tail risk from the FTC timeline.

The FTC filed in June 2024 -- by June 2026, that is 2 years, within the range where many FTC consumer protection cases settle. Settlement terms could include transparency requirements including churn data disclosure. Adobe might proactively disclose ahead of settlement to control the narrative. But 'could' is doing heavy lifting. The resolution requires public disclosure by Q2 FY2026 earnings -- a hard deadline. Courts can seal data, settlements have phase-in periods, and Adobe has every incentive to delay. The probability is non-trivial due to the FTC path but remains below 20%.

Pattern recognition: companies that deliberately withhold metrics do so for strategic reasons and rarely change without a confirmed forcing event. Adobe has no scheduled investor day where they might add new disclosures. The FTC is the forcing event but timeline is uncertain. Two possible catalysts (March Q1 earnings, June Q2 earnings) but Adobe's track record is consistent and deliberate non-disclosure. Near-zero probability for voluntary path, small probability for FTC-forced path within the window.

Never disclosed before plus strong incentive not to plus FTC timeline uncertain equals low probability. Small FTC tail risk bumps it above zero. Two earnings calls remain but Adobe has consistently chosen non-disclosure. Base rate for never-disclosed metric appearing in 4-month window is very low.

Two key facts dominate: Adobe has never disclosed NRR in its entire history as a public company, and the FTC case has no confirmed timeline for a resolution that would force public disclosure. The 4-month window to Q2 FY2026 earnings is tight for FTC proceedings. Very unlikely but non-zero due to FTC tail risk.

FTC case is the only real path to YES. Filed June 2024, approaching 2-year mark by resolution date. Some FTC cases settle in this timeframe with transparency requirements. But Adobe is a large company with resources to delay, and even settlement terms may not require public metric disclosure by June 2026. Very low probability with a meaningful FTC tail.