Will the EPA publish final Renewable Volume Obligation requirements for 2027+ by Q3 2026?

EPA rulemaking for RFS volumes has historically been delayed — the agency has missed its statutory deadline (November 30) for multiple consecutive years. The resolution asks for a FINAL rule (not proposed) by September 30, 2026, which is an aggressive timeline. The current political environment creates additional uncertainty. The 45C guidance clearing the White House OMB but not yet being finalized suggests the regulatory machinery is moving but slowly. EPA rulemaking from proposed to final typically takes 12-18 months.

The resolution requires a FINAL rule in the Federal Register, not just a proposed rule or executive action. The RFS program has been chronically delayed — EPA has frequently issued retroactive volume obligations or extensions of existing levels rather than timely forward-looking mandates. The current administration's priorities and industry lobbying dynamics make a final rule by September 2026 unlikely. Small Refinery Exemption considerations add additional policy complexity that slows finalization.

There is some probability that the current administration prioritizes energy policy, including biofuel mandates, as part of broader agricultural and rural economic policy. If a proposed rule exists or is near completion, the timeline to final rule could be shorter. ADM management's optimism about 'early RVO clarity' (high end of guidance assumption) suggests they may have industry intelligence about the rulemaking timeline. However, translating management optimism into probability for a specific regulatory action by a specific date requires significant discounting.

EPA rulemaking base rates for on-time delivery of RFS volumes are poor. The agency has been late more often than not. A FINAL rule for 2027+ volumes by September 2026 would require the proposed rule to already be in or near the public comment period. There is no indication from the analysis that a proposed rule has been published. The petroleum industry lobbying against aggressive RVO mandates creates political headwinds. This is a low-probability event by the specified deadline.

The question is narrow: final RVO for 2027+ by Q3 2026. EPA could potentially extend existing volumes or issue interim guidance that provides some clarity without meeting this specific threshold. The biofuel industry has political support in agricultural states, and the renewable diesel build-out creates pressure for volume certainty. However, final rules require public comment periods, interagency review, and OMB clearance — each adding months. 20% reflects the small but non-zero chance that the rulemaking process is further advanced than publicly visible.

The analysis identifies RVO policy as ADM's dominant risk factor precisely because it is uncertain and outside management control. If a final rule by Q3 2026 were likely, the guidance range would not be as wide ($0.65 spread). The width of the guidance range itself is evidence that management considers early RVO clarity a possibility, not a probability. Adjusting for typical EPA delays and the specific 'final rule in Federal Register' requirement, probability is well below 25%.

EPA rulemaking has historically been delayed for RFS volumes. A final rule by Q3 2026 would be faster than typical. Moderate probability reflecting some chance of expedited process but low base rate.

Final rule in Federal Register by September 2026 is a high bar. The analysis provides no evidence of a proposed rule being published. Multiple rulemaking steps remain. Low probability is warranted.

EPA has the institutional capacity to act quickly when politically motivated, but base rates for on-time RVO delivery are poor. Management includes this scenario in the high end of guidance but doesn't assign it high probability. Around 15-20% is appropriate.