Will ADM report liquid sweetener volume decline exceeding 10% YoY in any quarter of FY2026?

Current decline is 5-7%, and the threshold is >10% in any single quarter. This requires a near-doubling of the decline rate. While the Black Swan Beacon flags GLP-1 impact as potentially secular, the current GLP-1 penetration is only 3-5% of the adult population. GLP-1 adoption is growing but would need to accelerate significantly to push sweetener declines from 7% to 10%+ within 4 quarters. The more likely trajectory is a gradual acceleration (7% to 8-9%) rather than a sudden jump past 10%. Consumer behavior shifts tend to be incremental, not step-change.

The resolution criterion is any single quarter exceeding 10% YoY decline, not the annual average. Quarterly variations could produce a spike even if the annual trend is 7-8%. Factors that could drive a single-quarter spike: launch of a new GLP-1 drug with rapid adoption, a major CPG reformulation announcement reducing sweetener content, or seasonal factors in Q4 (holiday consumption patterns changing). The high retail food prices creating demand elasticity are an independent headwind that compounds with GLP-1. Still, jumping from 7% to 10%+ in a single quarter requires a catalyst.

Management guides Carb Solutions 'relatively flat' for FY2026, implying they expect sweetener decline to continue at current levels (5-7%), offset by ethanol/45C. If management expected 10%+ decline, the Carb Solutions guidance would be more cautious. While management can be wrong, their industry intelligence on CPG customer order patterns is relevant — they have forward visibility on sweetener contracts. The base case is continued 5-7% decline with potential gradual acceleration, not a sudden jump past 10%.

The 10% threshold is specific and demanding. Current trend is 5-7%. GLP-1 adoption is accelerating but from a small base. The compound effect of GLP-1 + ultra-processed food avoidance + price elasticity is real but not yet producing double-digit declines. The question covers 4 quarters, which gives more opportunities for a spike, but each quarter must independently exceed 10% for YES resolution. Management's experience with CPG customer behavior suggests they would flag accelerating decline if they saw it in order patterns.

Year-over-year comparisons matter. If FY2025 already had 5-7% decline, then FY2026 is comparing against a lower base. This actually makes it HARDER to show a 10% decline unless conditions genuinely deteriorate further. The comparison effect somewhat self-corrects — you need the ACCELERATION to be 10%+ from an already-reduced baseline. This is the strongest argument for a lower probability. The secular thesis may be real but its manifestation in any single quarter exceeding 10% requires compound effects.

The Black Swan Beacon specifically flagged this as a consensus blindspot, which should add some probability above what a pure base-rate analysis would suggest. If the secular thesis is correct, the decline will eventually cross 10% — the question is timing. With GLP-1 adoption accelerating, new formulations expanding the addressable population, and consumer health awareness growing, there's a meaningful tail probability that one quarter crosses 10% even if the annual average stays below. The LOW confidence reflects genuine uncertainty about the speed of this transition.

Current 5-7% decline needs to nearly double to cross 10%. While GLP-1 is a real headwind, the adoption rate is still low. Management expects Carb Solutions relatively flat. 25% reflects tail risk from the Black Swan thesis.

The lower comparison base from FY2025 declines actually makes it harder to show 10%+ in FY2026. Management's CPG customer visibility should provide early warning. The 10% threshold is unlikely in any single quarter given current trends.

The secular thesis from the Black Swan Beacon is the key uncertainty. If GLP-1 adoption accelerates faster than expected and a major CPG customer reformulates, a single quarter could spike above 10%. But this is a tail scenario, not the base case. 25-30% is appropriate.