Will AES sign at least 3 GW of new PPAs in FY2025?

AES had 2.2 GW signed through Q3 2025 with management expecting 1.8+ GW before year-end. If that holds, full-year signings would be 4 GW, well above the 3 GW threshold. The data center demand cycle is genuine — 90% of near-term data center power demand is renewables/batteries, and AES has established hyperscaler relationships. The 'lumpy' signing pattern is the main risk, but management's specific expectation of 1.8+ GW in Q4 and the strong underlying demand environment make this highly likely to clear 3 GW.

The 3 GW threshold requires only 0.8 GW more beyond Q3 (2.2 GW signed). Management expects 1.8+ GW, so even significant underperformance in Q4 would likely still clear 3 GW. The only scenario where this fails is if large expected deals slip past year-end — 'lumpy' means individual large PPAs represent a significant portion of the total. If one 500 MW+ deal slips, the total could drop. But the demand environment is exceptionally strong. I weight this at 78%.

The threshold is generous — at 2.2 GW through Q3 with a 4 GW target, AES needs to sign less than 22% of their remaining annual target to clear 3 GW. However, the take-private deal announced March 1, 2026 introduces a complication: some customers may have paused PPA negotiations pending clarity on the ownership change. Since the question is about FY2025 signings (not 2026), the deal announcement does not directly affect the answer. But depending on when FY2025 results are reported (if delayed due to deal), resolution timing could shift. I weight at 75%.

2.2 GW through Q3 means 3 GW requires just 0.8 GW more. Management explicitly expected 1.8+ GW before year-end. The strong data center demand and safe harbor advantage make PPA origination a strength. 80% probability is appropriate — high confidence with small residual risk from deal slip or timing.

The math is favorable: 2.2 GW + needed 0.8 GW = 3.0 GW threshold. Management expected 1.8+ GW more. Even a 50% miss on Q4 expectations would still deliver 3.1 GW. The risk is concentrated in a scenario where multiple large deals simultaneously slip past December 31. Given the 'fewer, larger, more profitable' deal trend, this is possible but unlikely given the demand environment. 77%.

Highly likely to clear 3 GW based on the 2.2 GW base and management's Q4 expectations. The 'lumpy' signing pattern introduces some variance, and I give slightly more weight to the possibility of large deal slippage than my peers. But the demand environment and competitive advantages (safe harbor, domestic supply chain, hyperscaler relationships) are strong tailwinds. 74%.

2.2 GW through Q3 + 1.8 GW expected Q4 = 4 GW. Threshold is 3 GW. Very wide margin of safety. Data center demand is genuine. 82% probability.

The low threshold (only 0.8 GW more needed) makes this highly likely. Lumpiness could cause a miss but would require nearly all Q4 expected deals to slip. Improbable given the demand environment. 78%.

Strong trajectory with 2.2 GW in hand and 1.8+ GW expected. The 3 GW threshold is conservative relative to the 4 GW target. Risk is limited to a scenario of widespread deal slippage, which the committee findings suggest is unlikely given the demand environment.