Will AES complete at least 2 GW of new renewables capacity in H1 2026?

AES completed 2.9 GW in the first 3 quarters of 2025, implying a run rate of ~1 GW per quarter. Sustaining this pace through H1 2026 (Q1 + Q2) would deliver 2 GW. The 4.8 GW under construction as of Q3 2025 provides ample pipeline for near-term completions. However, construction and interconnection timelines can be lumpy — some quarters deliver more than 1 GW, others less. The take-private deal announcement may not directly affect construction but could affect contractor priority or utility interconnection processes. Domestic supply chain advantage mitigates supply disruption risk. 72%.

The 2 GW threshold for a half-year is achievable given the run rate, but renewables construction has seasonal patterns — Q1 may be slower due to winter weather in some geographies, and Q2 ramps up. The data center backlog projects (nearly half of 4 GW under construction completing in next 18 months from Q3 2025 = by Q1 2027) should provide steady completions. But 'completing in next 18 months' doesn't mean they all complete in H1 2026 — completions will be spread across 6 quarters. I weight at 68%, reflecting the achievable run rate with a discount for lumpiness and seasonal patterns.

The committee's monitoring trigger set the threshold at <0.5 GW per quarter as signaling a slowdown. For H1 2026 (2 quarters), 2 GW requires 1 GW per quarter — double the 'slowdown signal' threshold but matching the 2025 run rate. The favorable contractor arrangements (rolling construction programs) and domestic supply chain reduce execution risk. Interconnection queue delays are the primary bottleneck, and these are hard to predict. 70% reflects the strong pipeline with residual interconnection risk.

The run rate supports this, but H1 2026 completions depend on projects that are currently in late-stage construction. Interconnection agreements, grid upgrades, and final commissioning can delay commercial operation dates by weeks or months. The 2 GW threshold is achievable but not as comfortable as it might seem from the run rate alone. Projects slip between quarters routinely. 67%.

I weigh interconnection risk more heavily. Grid interconnection queues nationally have become a major bottleneck for renewables. Even with a strong construction pipeline, the final step — connecting to the grid — is controlled by utilities and ISOs with their own timelines. AES's own utility operations in Indiana and Ohio may help for projects in those territories, but the 50 GW development pipeline suggests projects across many jurisdictions. 65%.

The combination of strong pipeline (4.8 GW under construction), proven execution (2.9 GW completed in 2025), domestic supply chain advantage, and data center customer pull (hyperscalers want their contracted power online) supports achieving 2 GW in H1 2026. Hyperscaler customers add a pull factor — they're incentivized to help projects clear interconnection and permitting hurdles. 70%.

Strong pipeline and proven run rate support 2 GW. Interconnection risk and seasonal lumpiness are the main concerns. 70%.

Achievable but not certain. Construction and interconnection timing is inherently uncertain. The 2 GW threshold for 2 quarters is reasonable given the pipeline but projects slip routinely. 66%.

The run rate and pipeline both support this. Domestic supply chain and rolling construction programs reduce risk. Interconnection queues are the wildcard. 68%.