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Will AES's FY2025 Renewables SBU Adjusted EBITDA grow at least 45% year-over-year?

Resolves May 15, 2026(55d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

82%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 20, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Renewables EBITDA growth is the core validation of AES's transformation thesis. The Gravy Gauge classified REVENUE_DURABILITY as CONDITIONAL — contingent on execution of the backlog. If FY2025 delivers 45%+ growth, it confirms the transformation is accelerating; if it falls short, it raises questions about execution and the deal price's adequacy.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 78% – 85%Aggregate: 82%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

85%

Renewables EBITDA was at 46% growth through Q3 2025, with management guiding for ~50% full year. The 45% threshold is below management's own guidance. 75%+ of full-year EBITDA was already in hand by Q3. Q4 typically benefits from Colombian hydro normalization and additional capacity completions. The segment reclassification (Chile renewables moved to Renewables SBU in 2025) should not adversely affect the YoY comparison since it applies to both periods. Very high probability.

46% YTD growth already above 45% threshold through 3 quartersManagement guided for ~50% full year — 45% is conservative75%+ of EBITDA already achieved by Q3

opusRun 2

82%

The math strongly favors YES. At 46% growth through Q3 with 75%+ of EBITDA in hand, the Q4 contribution needs only modest growth to maintain the full-year rate above 45%. The prior year Q4 base is known, and new capacity coming online provides incremental contribution. The main risk is if Q4 2024 was an unusually strong quarter (creating a tough comp), but the committee's analysis suggests the trend is accelerating, not decelerating. 82%.

YTD growth rate already above thresholdQ4 incremental contribution from new capacityAccelerating trend supports sustained high growth

opusRun 3

80%

I want to consider the downside: if Q4 2024 was a particularly strong quarter for renewables (perhaps due to capacity additions or weather), the YoY comp could be harder than the YTD average suggests. Also, the segment reclassification timing matters — if Chile renewables were counted differently in the prior year Q4, the comparison could be distorted. However, management's specific ~50% guidance suggests they've accounted for these factors. 80% remains high probability.

Q4 2024 comp difficulty is unknown from available dataSegment reclassification timing could affect comparabilityManagement guidance at ~50% accounts for these factors

sonnetRun 1

83%

46% growth through 3 quarters with 75%+ of the year done. Management guiding ~50%. The 45% threshold is conservative relative to the trajectory. Strong probability this is already locked in given the majority of the year is complete. 83%.

75%+ of year complete with 46% growth rateConservative threshold vs management guidanceTrajectory is accelerating, not decelerating

sonnetRun 2

78%

Highly likely but not certain. The segment reclassification (Chile renewables) introduces a small risk of accounting adjustments affecting the final reported number. Also, 'Renewables SBU Adjusted EBITDA' could include or exclude items differently in the full-year 10-K vs. quarterly earnings. The question specifically references 45% growth, and at 46% YTD the margin is narrow. Q4 could dilute the YTD rate if the quarterly growth is lower. 78%.

Narrow margin above threshold (46% vs 45%) could tightenSegment reclassification introduces accounting adjustment riskQ4 seasonal pattern could affect final rate

sonnetRun 3

84%

Management is very confident in ~50% renewables EBITDA growth. They've already achieved 75%+ of full-year EBITDA. The renewables growth is being driven by capacity additions (2.9 GW YTD) which are largely irreversible — once online, they generate contracted EBITDA. Q4 should add more capacity from the 4.8 GW under construction. 84% is warranted.

Management highly confident in ~50% guidanceCapacity additions are irreversible once online4.8 GW under construction provides Q4 additions

haikuRun 1

85%

46% growth through Q3 with 75%+ done. Management guides ~50%. Threshold at 45% is below both YTD actuals and guidance. Very likely to resolve YES. 85%.

YTD growth above thresholdManagement guidance well above thresholdMajority of year already complete

haikuRun 2

80%

Strong trajectory supports YES. The 45% threshold is conservative. Small risk from Q4 comp difficulty or segment accounting adjustments, but management guidance at ~50% provides substantial buffer. 80%.

Conservative threshold with management bufferSmall risk from accounting adjustmentsStrong Q4 capacity additions expected

haikuRun 3

82%

The evidence strongly supports 45%+ growth. 2.9 GW online in 2025, management confident, and 75%+ of earnings already booked. Risk is minimal. 82%.

2.9 GW capacity additions drive growthManagement confidenceMinimal downside risk at 45% threshold

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if AES's FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings report shows Renewables SBU Adjusted EBITDA growth of 45% or more year-over-year. Resolves NO if growth is below 45%.

Resolution Source

AES 10-K FY2025 or Q4 2025 earnings release

Source Trigger

Renewables EBITDA grew 46% YTD in Q3 2025, expected ~50% for full year. Track whether this trajectory continues.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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