AFRMActive

Will Affirm's ABS issuance spreads remain below 200bps through calendar 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

ABS spreads above 200bps were flagged as a critical trigger for funding stress. Sustained low spreads validate favorable capital market conditions that enable the business model. Widening would directly compress margins.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 57%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

57%

Current spreads are at 'best-since-2021' levels, well below 200bps. The 200bps threshold is a stress level, not a normal condition. Absent a recession or major credit market dislocation, spreads should remain below 200bps. However, tariff-driven economic uncertainty could create transient widening. Lean YES.

Current spreads well below threshold200bps is stress levelTariff uncertainty creates risk

opusRun 2

53%

Consumer ABS spreads can widen rapidly during risk-off events. Even without a recession, a significant market sell-off or geopolitical event could push spreads above 200bps temporarily. The 'all deals through calendar 2026' requirement means any single deal above 200bps resolves NO. This tail risk pulls probability down. Above 50% but not strongly.

Risk-off events can widen quicklyAll deals requirement adds tail riskSlightly above coin-flip

opusRun 3

55%

ABS markets have been well-behaved through the 2024-2026 period. Affirm's credit performance supports investor confidence. Blue-chip capital partners provide stability. The main risk is broader credit market contagion from an external shock. Above coin-flip.

ABS markets well-behaved recentlyCredit performance supports confidenceExternal shock is main risk

sonnetRun 1

55%

200bps is a meaningful stress threshold. Current conditions are favorable. Absent recession, the base case is below 200bps. Tariff uncertainty adds modest risk. Above coin-flip.

Meaningful stress thresholdFavorable conditionsTariff adds modest risk

sonnetRun 2

52%

The all-deals requirement creates tail risk from any transient market dislocation. Credit spreads can widen 50-100bps in weeks during stress. Current spreads would need to double to hit 200bps, which is significant but not impossible. Slight lean YES.

All-deals requirement adds tail riskSpreads can widen quicklyWould need significant widening

sonnetRun 3

57%

Strong credit performance, favorable market conditions, and diversified funding sources support staying below 200bps. The threshold is well above current levels. Above 55%.

Strong credit performanceFavorable conditionsThreshold well above current

haikuRun 1

55%

Current spreads well below threshold. Favorable conditions. Tail risk from external shocks. Above coin-flip.

Well below thresholdFavorable conditionsTail risk exists

haikuRun 2

52%

All-deals requirement adds risk. Credit market dislocations can happen fast. But 200bps is a high threshold. Above coin-flip.

All-deals riskFast dislocations possibleHigh threshold

haikuRun 3

55%

Base case is favorable. External shocks are the risk. Above 50%.

Base case favorableExternal shocks riskAbove 50%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Affirm's ABS issuance spreads remain below 200bps for all deals executed in calendar year 2026. Resolves NO if any ABS issuance has a spread of 200bps or above.

Resolution Source

ABS deal reports, Bloomberg ABS data, or Affirm quarterly disclosures

Source Trigger

ABS spreads exceeding 200bps flagged as critical funding stress trigger

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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