AFRMActive

Will Affirm's 30-day delinquency rate remain below 4% through calendar 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(297d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

30-day delinquency rate exceeding 4% was identified as a critical monitoring trigger. Credit deterioration would simultaneously increase losses and restrict ABS funding — the stress scenario the business model is most vulnerable to.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 65%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

63%

Current delinquency rates are well below 4%, and short loan duration (~8 months) limits loss accumulation. ML underwriting can tighten dynamically. No recession is the base case for 2026, though tariff-driven slowdown adds risk. The 4% threshold has never been breached in Affirm's reporting history. Lean YES.

Current rates well below 4%Short duration limits accumulationNo recession base case

opusRun 2

60%

The 4% threshold is a stress-level indicator that would require meaningful economic deterioration to trigger. Affirm's ML underwriting and short durations provide natural protection. However, the growing 0% loan mix and new vertical expansion may introduce credit risk from untested segments. The macro outlook is the key variable. Above 55%.

4% is a stress-level thresholdML underwriting provides protectionGrowing 0% mix may introduce new risk

opusRun 3

62%

Credit performance in the BNPL sector has been better than feared through the 2023-2025 period. Affirm's track record of managing delinquencies is solid. The main risk is a sharp unemployment increase that hits BNPL borrowers disproportionately. At current economic conditions, staying below 4% is the base case.

Solid credit performance track recordSharp unemployment increase is main riskCurrent conditions favor below 4%

sonnetRun 1

62%

4% is a significant threshold that requires deterioration well beyond current levels. Short loan duration and dynamic underwriting provide structural protection. Tariff-driven economic slowdown is a risk but recession is not the base case. Lean YES.

Significant deterioration needed to hit 4%Structural protections in placeRecession not base case

sonnetRun 2

58%

BNPL borrowers may be more economically sensitive than traditional credit users. The 'all quarters' requirement means any single quarter breach resolves NO. Tariff uncertainty could create transient economic stress. Slightly lower probability than peers due to tail risk in any single quarter.

BNPL borrowers more economically sensitiveAny single quarter breach resolves NOTariff uncertainty adds tail risk

sonnetRun 3

65%

Affirm's underwriting capabilities and short duration provide genuine protection. The 4% threshold is well above current levels. No recession in the base case. Strong lean YES unless a significant economic shock occurs.

Genuine underwriting capabilities4% well above currentStrong lean YES absent recession

haikuRun 1

62%

Current rates well below threshold. Short duration protects. No recession base case. Lean YES.

Well below thresholdShort durationNo recession expected

haikuRun 2

58%

Tariff-driven slowdown could stress BNPL borrowers. But 4% is a high bar. ML underwriting adapts. Above coin-flip.

Tariff risk existsHigh bar at 4%ML adapts

haikuRun 3

63%

Track record strong, threshold high, protections in place. Above 60% probability of staying below 4%.

Strong track recordHigh thresholdProtections available

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Affirm's reported 30-day+ delinquency rate remains below 4.0% in all quarterly disclosures through calendar year 2026. Resolves NO if any quarterly disclosure shows 4.0% or above.

Resolution Source

Affirm quarterly earnings releases and ABS trust reports

Source Trigger

30-day delinquency rate exceeding 4% baseline flagged as critical monitoring trigger

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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