Will Affirm maintain RLTC as % of GMV above 3.5% for all quarters of FY2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
RLTC as % of GMV is Affirm's core unit economics metric. Falling below 3.5% was identified as a monitoring trigger by the Atomic Auditor. Sustained above 3.5% validates the pricing power and underwriting quality.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
RLTC at 4.0-4.2% provides 50-70bps buffer above the 3.5% threshold. Management deliberately manages to this metric — they would adjust pricing before allowing it to fall below target range. ABS market conditions are favorable. The 'all quarters' requirement adds some risk from any single quarter shortfall, but the buffer is substantial.
The 3-4% target range means management views 3.5% as mid-range, not a floor. They actively reinvest above 4% into growth. Competitive pressure from Klarna/PayPal could force pricing concessions that compress RLTC. But the 3.5% level has a good margin of safety at current levels. Above 65%.
The deliberate cap at ~4% means management has levers to prevent RLTC from falling too far. They can adjust merchant pricing, loan mix, or credit tightening. The main risk is a simultaneous credit deterioration + ABS spread widening that compresses both sides. At current conditions, well above 65%.
Running at 4.0-4.2% with active management attention. The threshold is below the target range floor. Would take significant adverse conditions to breach. Lean strongly YES.
Growing 0% loan mix is the key risk — merchant-funded deals have different RLTC economics. If 0% mix grows faster than expected, RLTC could compress. But management would adjust before it hits 3.5%. Above 60%.
This is the metric management cares most about. They have demonstrated ability and willingness to manage it actively. 3.5% is well below current levels. Strong lean YES.
Strong buffer, active management. 3.5% is below target floor. Above 65%.
0% loan mix and competitive pressure are risks but management has levers. Above 60%.
Core metric with active management and substantial buffer. Strong lean YES.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if RLTC as % of GMV is 3.5% or above in all four quarters of FY2026. Resolves NO if any quarter falls below 3.5%.
Resolution Source
Affirm quarterly earnings releases
Source Trigger
RLTC as % of GMV falling below 3.5% for 2 quarters flagged as unit economics trigger
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