Back to Forecasting
AFRMActive

Will Affirm maintain RLTC as % of GMV above 3.5% for all quarters of FY2026?

Resolves September 15, 2026(159d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

68%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement98%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

RLTC as % of GMV is Affirm's core unit economics metric. Falling below 3.5% was identified as a monitoring trigger by the Atomic Auditor. Sustained above 3.5% validates the pricing power and underwriting quality.

UNIT_ECONOMICSCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 65%70%Aggregate: 68%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
70%

RLTC at 4.0-4.2% provides 50-70bps buffer above the 3.5% threshold. Management deliberately manages to this metric — they would adjust pricing before allowing it to fall below target range. ABS market conditions are favorable. The 'all quarters' requirement adds some risk from any single quarter shortfall, but the buffer is substantial.

50-70bps buffer above thresholdManagement actively manages this metricABS market conditions favorable
opusRun 2
67%

The 3-4% target range means management views 3.5% as mid-range, not a floor. They actively reinvest above 4% into growth. Competitive pressure from Klarna/PayPal could force pricing concessions that compress RLTC. But the 3.5% level has a good margin of safety at current levels. Above 65%.

Management views 3.5% as mid-rangeCompetitive pressure could compressGood margin of safety currently
opusRun 3
68%

The deliberate cap at ~4% means management has levers to prevent RLTC from falling too far. They can adjust merchant pricing, loan mix, or credit tightening. The main risk is a simultaneous credit deterioration + ABS spread widening that compresses both sides. At current conditions, well above 65%.

Management has multiple adjustment leversSimultaneous credit + ABS stress is main riskWell above 65% at current conditions
sonnetRun 1
68%

Running at 4.0-4.2% with active management attention. The threshold is below the target range floor. Would take significant adverse conditions to breach. Lean strongly YES.

Below target range floorActive managementSignificant adversity needed to breach
sonnetRun 2
65%

Growing 0% loan mix is the key risk — merchant-funded deals have different RLTC economics. If 0% mix grows faster than expected, RLTC could compress. But management would adjust before it hits 3.5%. Above 60%.

0% loan mix is key riskManagement would adjust proactivelyAbove 60%
sonnetRun 3
70%

This is the metric management cares most about. They have demonstrated ability and willingness to manage it actively. 3.5% is well below current levels. Strong lean YES.

Core management metricActive management demonstratedWell below current levels
haikuRun 1
68%

Strong buffer, active management. 3.5% is below target floor. Above 65%.

Strong bufferActive managementBelow target floor
haikuRun 2
65%

0% loan mix and competitive pressure are risks but management has levers. Above 60%.

Mix risk existsManagement levers availableAbove 60%
haikuRun 3
68%

Core metric with active management and substantial buffer. Strong lean YES.

Core metricSubstantial bufferStrong lean YES

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if RLTC as % of GMV is 3.5% or above in all four quarters of FY2026. Resolves NO if any quarter falls below 3.5%.

Resolution Source

Affirm quarterly earnings releases

Source Trigger

RLTC as % of GMV falling below 3.5% for 2 quarters flagged as unit economics trigger

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSMEDIUM
View AFRM Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis