ASTSActive

Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(382d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement84%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 19, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Fills CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT coverage gap. Tests whether the ~$3.7B cash position (after Feb 2026 convertible) can sustain the 45-60 satellite deployment plan plus undefined 'AI initiatives' and 'opportunistic investments.' Starting cash ~$3.4B with base case ending at ~$2.1B leaves narrow $100M buffer above $2B. YES would validate Stress Scanner's MIXED classification and signal capital insufficiency. NO would confirm management's capital planning adequacy.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 20% – 50%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

32%

Starting cash ~$3.4B requires burning $1.4B+ to breach $2B. Base case yields ~$2.1B year-end — above threshold. Bear case (40 satellites, higher opex, $100M new spending) yields ~$1.8B. Large starting position and ability to slow deployment or raise capital provide meaningful buffers.

$3.4B starting cash provides $1.4B bufferSatellite deployment pace is critical variable: 30 keeps above, 40+ pushes belowCompany can raise more capital if needed

opusRun 2

37%

Bear-case focus: base case lands at ~$2.1B with only $100M buffer. Management demonstrated capital appetite exceeding projections ($1.7B raised despite 'fully funded'). Satellite acceleration to 35-40 units at $20M+ each could reach $700-800M manufacturing costs. 'AI initiatives' are completely undefined and could add $50-200M.

Base case buffer of only $100M above thresholdManagement pattern of underestimating capital needsUndefined 'AI initiatives' could add $50-200M of unmodeled burn

opusRun 3

27%

Management optionality is decisive. The company can raise additional capital ($1.7B raised in 5 months demonstrates access) or slow deployment to preserve cash. Both levers work against breaching $2B. The $3.4B starting position and base case ending above threshold make YES a tail risk scenario.

Company can raise capital rapidly if needed (demonstrated $1.7B in 5 months)Can slow deployment pace to reduce burnBase case stays above $2B with margin

sonnetRun 1

30%

Starting cash ~$3.4B with base case ending at ~$2.1B. Bear case is plausible but requires multiple adverse conditions simultaneously. Management's demonstrated capital markets behavior (sibling market resolved YES) suggests they'll raise more before cash gets critical.

Base case narrowly clears $2B thresholdBear case achievable if deployment acceleratesManagement will raise capital defensively before hitting danger zone

sonnetRun 2

22%

Only the bear case (40 satellites + opex growth + $100M+ new categories) breaches $2B. Management's demonstrated pattern of raising capital reduces probability of year-end cash below $2B. Undefined spending categories introduce uncertainty but likely moderate.

Only bear case breaches $2B; bull and base cases stay aboveManagement raises capital before cash gets tightUndefined spending categories likely moderate

sonnetRun 3

20%

Crossing $2B requires simultaneous confluence of 40+ satellites, elevated opex, and material AI/opportunistic spending — a low-probability combination. The resolved sibling market demonstrates management will return to capital markets when needed, making a defensive raise the likely backstop.

Bear case requires multiple adverse conditions simultaneouslyResolved sibling market confirms capital raise patternAdditional raise would push cash back above $2B

haikuRun 1

28%

Base case keeps cash at $2.1B. Management's pattern of raising capital beyond projections and sibling market resolved YES suggest preemptive financing rather than depletion. Satellite deployment pace and undefined AI spending are main uncertainty drivers.

Base case buffer above $2B but narrowManagement pattern suggests preemptive capital raisesSatellite deployment pace determines burn rate

haikuRun 2

50%

Base case buffer of only $100M above $2B is tight. Management's demonstrated capital appetite suggests spending may exceed forecasts. If deployment accelerates to 30+ satellites for commercial launch validation, combined with AI spending, breaching $2B is plausible.

Satellite deployment pace determines $500-800M burnBase case buffer only $100M above thresholdManagement's pattern of exceeding projections

haikuRun 3

32%

Starting $3.4B provides meaningful cushion. Bear case requires aggressive 40-satellite deployment + elevated costs. Management's track record of raising capital suggests preemptive financing rather than depletion.

$3.4B starting position provides meaningful cushionBear case requires aggressive deployment + costsManagement raises capital preemptively

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if AST SpaceMobile's total cash and restricted cash (or cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash) as reported in any SEC filing (10-Q, 10-K, or 8-K) for a period ending on or before December 31, 2026, is below $2.0 billion. Resolves NO if cash and restricted cash remains at or above $2.0 billion through December 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

AST SpaceMobile 10-Q quarterly filings, 10-K annual filing, 8-K disclosures with balance sheet data

Source Trigger

Cash burn rate vs deployment pace indicates capital sufficiency

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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