RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

ASTS Forecast Markets

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

7
Active Markets
2
Resolved
40%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 2, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?

Active
34%
Likely No
35%34%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: management silent on FCC SCS
82% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will SpaceX demonstrate broadband direct-to-device service (>5 Mbps downlink to unmodified phone) by December 31, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
13%12%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: no new SpaceX D2D data
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
40%52%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: stacking completed, 29 in production
79% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will AST SpaceMobile report commercial D2D service revenue exceeding $10M in any single quarter by Q3 2026?

Active
4%
Likely No
5%4%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: still zero commercial D2D revenue
98% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
62%60%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: CTO status unchanged, neutral update
61% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?

Active
18%
Likely No
20%18%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: no Ligado-specific updates
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
30%20%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: cash confirmed $3.9B (up from $3.4B estimate)
88% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?

Resolved
91%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.008
Mar 2, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
70%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.090
Feb 19, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?
YESBrier: 0.01
Nov 30, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile report commercial D2D service revenue exceeding $10M in any single quarter by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 4%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 34%
Dec 31, 2026
Will SpaceX demonstrate broadband direct-to-device service (>5 Mbps downlink to unmodified phone) by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 60%
Dec 31, 2026
Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 18%
Dec 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.09
Mar 15, 2027
Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 20%