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ASTS Forecast Markets

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

8
Active Markets
1
Resolved
41%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 9, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?

Active
91%
Likely Yes
30%91%after 8-K filing: preliminary FY2025 revenue $63-71M
84% agreement
Apr 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will SpaceX demonstrate broadband direct-to-device service (>5 Mbps downlink to unmodified phone) by December 31, 2026?

Active
13%
Likely No
96% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will AST SpaceMobile report commercial D2D service revenue exceeding $10M in any single quarter by Q3 2026?

Active
5%
Likely No
98% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?

Active
62%
Likely Yes
78% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
84% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
70%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.090
Feb 19, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 15, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?
Prediction: 91%
Nov 30, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile report commercial D2D service revenue exceeding $10M in any single quarter by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 5%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Dec 31, 2026
Will SpaceX demonstrate broadband direct-to-device service (>5 Mbps downlink to unmodified phone) by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 13%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 40%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 62%
Dec 31, 2026
Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Dec 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.09
Mar 15, 2027
Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 30%