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ASTS Forecast Markets
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
7
Active Markets
2
Resolved
40%
Avg Probability
All Markets
9 markets
Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?
34%
Likely No
35%34%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: management silent on FCC SCS
82% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 1.00
Will SpaceX demonstrate broadband direct-to-device service (>5 Mbps downlink to unmodified phone) by December 31, 2026?
12%
Likely No
13%12%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: no new SpaceX D2D data
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?
52%
Likely Yes
40%52%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: stacking completed, 29 in production
79% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will AST SpaceMobile report commercial D2D service revenue exceeding $10M in any single quarter by Q3 2026?
4%
Likely No
5%4%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: still zero commercial D2D revenue
98% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?
60%
Likely Yes
62%60%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: CTO status unchanged, neutral update
61% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?
18%
Likely No
20%18%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: no Ligado-specific updates
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?
20%
Likely No
30%20%after Q4 FY2025 earnings: cash confirmed $3.9B (up from $3.4B estimate)
88% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?
91%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.008Mar 2, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026?
70%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.090Feb 19, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)? YESBrier: 0.01
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 34%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile have 25 or more operational BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 52%
Dec 31, 2026
Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 60%
Dec 31, 2026
Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 18%
Dec 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will AST SpaceMobile conduct an additional dilutive equity or convertible offering exceeding $200M by December 31, 2026? YESBrier: 0.09
Mar 15, 2027
Will AST SpaceMobile's cash and restricted cash fall below $2 billion by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 20%