Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?

Ligado's L-band spectrum has been contested for over a decade due to GPS interference concerns that blocked prior approvals. The GPS interference issue is technical, not merely political, and DoD opposition is deeply institutional. Resolving a decade-old regulatory impasse within 11 months is unlikely given the entrenched nature of these objections.

The current FCC composition and political environment's favorability toward Ligado is explicitly noted as unknown in the analysis. L-band GPS interference concerns have been bipartisan and tied to national security, transcending political cycles. The FCC also faces competing proceedings including the SCS application and SpaceX complaint, limiting bandwidth for Ligado processing.

The FCC is simultaneously processing AST's SCS license (ranked higher priority), SpaceX's complaint, and now the Ligado arrangement. The Ligado proceeding is ranked #9 of 12 monitoring triggers, suggesting it is lower priority even for AST itself. With limited FCC staff and complex novel regulatory questions across multiple proceedings, the FCC may not reach meaningful Ligado processing by year-end 2026.

Weighing all factors: AST has a real deal in place and the direct-to-device use case has some political support, but Ligado's decade-plus regulatory failures, unresolved GPS interference, DoD opposition, FCC bandwidth constraints, and bankruptcy complications all tilt strongly toward NO. The balance of evidence suggests approval within 2026 is unlikely but not impossible.

The question asks only about FCC approval, not bankruptcy court, so theoretically the FCC can act independently. However, the FCC may be reluctant to approve a spectrum arrangement when Ligado's corporate structure is uncertain pending bankruptcy resolution. Regulatory bodies often defer decisions when the counterparty's corporate existence is in question, adding a practical delay even if legal independence exists.

The Department of Defense has historically opposed Ligado's L-band utilization due to GPS interference with critical military navigation systems. This opposition has persisted across multiple administrations and carries enormous weight in spectrum decisions. Military GPS is critical national infrastructure, and DoD opposition alone has been sufficient to block Ligado approvals in the past.

Decade of regulatory failure plus DoD opposition plus GPS interference plus FCC bandwidth constraints plus bankruptcy complication equals low probability. The strongest counter-signal is that deals sometimes do get approved, but Ligado's specific history is very unfavorable.

Ligado has been trying to commercialize L-band spectrum since at least 2011 when it was LightSquared. Multiple FCC proceedings have resulted in multiple failures. The base rate for contested L-band approvals with active DoD opposition is effectively near zero historically, anchoring this probability very low even allowing for some regime-change possibility.

Eleven months remaining for an FCC decision on spectrum that has been contested for over a decade. GPS interference is unresolved, DoD opposes, FCC has other priorities, and Ligado is in bankruptcy. Simple assessment: low probability of approval by year-end 2026.