Will the FCC approve AST SpaceMobile's Ligado spectrum deal by December 31, 2026?

Q4 FY2025 earnings provided zero new information on Ligado. Management's only FCC reference was a generic 'awaiting FCC approval' in the context of capitalizing spectrum costs — no granularity on Ligado timelines. With 10 months remaining and no process progress visible, the probability ticks marginally lower from the prior 0.20. The GPS interference issue remains unresolved, DoD opposition is institutionally entrenched, and FCC bandwidth is consumed by higher-priority SCS and SpaceX proceedings. The company's strong cash position ($3.9B) and $16M quarterly payments being immaterial is the only softened concern, but that doesn't move the regulatory needle.

Holding near the prior estimate of 0.20. The earnings silence on Ligado is consistent with no progress but also with a quiet processing period at the FCC. Whether the current FCC composition is more favorable to Ligado remains unknown — this is an explicit uncertainty from the committee analysis and still unresolved. The Trump-era FCC could theoretically move faster on spectrum deregulation, and the Ligado deal's benefit to a US space-tech company may carry some political weight. But there is no concrete evidence of this materializing, and the GPS/DoD opposition transcends politics. Maintaining 0.20 as the most defensible estimate.

Ligado ranked #9 of 12 monitoring triggers within AST's own internal priority ordering. Management's Q4 call contained no Ligado mention whatsoever — consistent with a regulatory process that is not actively advancing. With only 10 months remaining against a dispute that has accumulated 10+ years of entrenchment, the conditional probability of resolution this year decreases modestly with each passing quarter of silence. FCC is simultaneously handling the SCS license (higher priority) and SpaceX's complaint. Institutional bandwidth constraints compound with complexity constraints. Marginal downward drift from prior 0.20 is warranted.

The Q4 earnings update is a clean null result for Ligado: no updates from management, no FCC developments disclosed, no bankruptcy court news. This is a weakly negative signal given time compression — each month of silence is a month not progressing toward approval. The structural picture is unchanged: dual approval requirement (FCC + bankruptcy court), GPS interference unresolved, DoD opposition entrenched, FCC processing higher-priority SCS and SpaceX items. A marginal pullback from 0.22 to 0.19 reflects the null update combined with 3-4 fewer weeks of runway.

The FCC may be reluctant to approve a spectrum arrangement when Ligado's corporate structure remains uncertain in bankruptcy. Even if GPS interference concerns were somehow resolved, the FCC might hold approval pending clarity on which entity would actually hold and operate the spectrum post-restructuring. The bankruptcy proceeding and FCC proceeding are legally independent but practically intertwined — the FCC granting approval to a company in a contested restructuring creates regulatory uncertainty about enforcement and spectrum management. This dual-proceeding entanglement adds a practical delay layer that wasn't resolved by Q4 earnings.

DoD opposition to L-band spectrum utilization has been the decisive blocking factor across multiple Ligado/LightSquared proceedings since at least 2012. This opposition is rooted in GPS interference with critical military navigation systems — a genuinely technical concern that is not easily resolved by political pressure or administrative priority shifts. With DoD still likely opposed (no evidence of any resolution) and the FCC unlikely to override DoD on GPS/national security grounds, the dominant signal remains strong toward NO. The earnings null is consistent with this assessment. 0.15 reflects DoD opposition as the primary constraint.

Q4 earnings: zero Ligado signal. FCC: silent. Bankruptcy court: silent. DoD: no position change evident. GPS interference: unresolved. Ten months remain on a decade-old regulatory dispute. Prior batch was 0.20. Marginal downward drift to 0.18 on time compression and null update.

Base rate anchoring: LightSquared/Ligado has been trying to commercialize L-band spectrum since 2011. Multiple FCC proceedings across multiple administrations have all failed. The historical base rate for contested L-band approvals with active DoD opposition is effectively zero. Even with some allowance for a new political environment or technical mitigation, the base rate pulls strongly toward 0.10-0.15. Q4 earnings null update provides no reason to move away from the base rate. Maintaining 0.12.

Ten months remaining. Decade of regulatory failure. DoD opposed. GPS interference unresolved. FCC busy with higher-priority items. Ligado in bankruptcy. Q4 earnings added nothing. Simple assessment: low probability, marginally lower than prior batch of 0.15 on reduced runway and null update.