Will AST SpaceMobile's H2 2025 total revenue meet or exceed the low end of guidance ($50M)?
H2 2025 revenue of $69.0M landed at the top of the $50-75M guidance range. Q4 alone ($54.3M) exceeded the full H2 threshold. Revenue mix: gateway hardware sales, U.S. government service milestones, and first MNO consulting services. The ensemble's initial prediction of 30% reflected justified skepticism given the Q2 79% miss, but the 8-K update correctly shifted the ensemble to 91%. The initial batch substantially underestimated management's pipeline visibility — the triple reiteration of guidance was the strongest available signal and was underweighted.
Prediction Score
Final Prediction
Prediction History
Preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M disclosed in Feb 11, 2026 8-K implies H2 revenue of ~$59-67M, well above the $50M threshold. Prediction shifted from 30% to 91% YES as the key uncertainty (whether Q4 would deliver $35.3M+) is now largely answered by SEC-filed preliminary data.
Why This Question Matters
Management guided H2 2025 revenue of $50-75M after Q2's $1.15M miss (79% below expectations). Q3 delivered $14.7M, meaning Q4 must deliver $35-60M to meet the range. This is the nearest-term testable signal and directly affects credibility of management's forward claims including the $1B+ contracted revenue figure. A significant miss would escalate ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY (guidance credibility) and EXPECTATIONS_PRICED (management forecasting track record). Meeting guidance would partially validate the revenue trajectory narrative.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
The Feb 11, 2026 8-K disclosed preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M. With Q1+Q2 at approximately $3-4M, implied H2 2025 revenue is $59-67M, well above the $50M threshold. These figures were disclosed in connection with a $1B convertible notes offering, giving management strong legal incentive for accuracy. The only path to NO is a >14% downward audit revision of preliminary figures, which is extremely rare for SEC-filed preliminary results.
Preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M was disclosed in a Feb 11 8-K filing for a $1B convertible offering. With H1 revenue of approximately $3-4M (Q1 minimal, Q2 $1.15M), implied H2 revenue is $59-67M, well above the $50M threshold. Even the most conservative scenario (FY $63M, H1 $4M) yields H2 of $59M. The only path to NO requires a >15% downward audit revision of preliminary figures disclosed to institutional investors, which is extremely rare.
Preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M was disclosed in an SEC 8-K filing connected to a $1B convertible notes offering, giving management strong legal incentive for accuracy. With H1 2025 revenue of approximately $2-3M (Q1 minimal, Q2 reported at $1.15M), implied H2 2025 revenue is ~$60-68M, well above the $50M threshold. For this market to resolve NO, the preliminary figures would need a downward audit revision of 15%+, which occurs in fewer than 2-3% of cases for 8-K preliminary disclosures tied to capital raises.
The Feb 11, 2026 8-K disclosed preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M (unaudited), filed in connection with a $1B convertible notes offering — a context that creates strong accuracy incentives. With Q1-Q3 2025 revenue totaling approximately $17M, implied H2 2025 revenue is approximately $46-54M at the low end of FY guidance, comfortably meeting the $50M threshold. The primary residual risk is that H1 revenue was materially higher than estimated, but Q2's reported $1.15M and Q1's 'minimal' characterization make this unlikely.
The Feb 11, 2026 8-K disclosed preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M (unaudited), filed in connection with a $1B convertible notes offering — a context that strongly incentivizes accuracy with institutional investors. With Q1-Q3 2025 revenue totaling approximately $17M, implied H2 2025 revenue is approximately $46-54M at the low end and $54-67M at the high end, which clears the $50M threshold at the midpoint and above.
The Feb 11 8-K discloses preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M. With Q1-Q3 at ~$17M, implied Q4 revenue spans ~$46-54M. Only the low end of the preliminary range ($63M FY) would result in a miss, while the midpoint and above yield H2 >= $50M. The disclosure was made in an SEC 8-K Item 2.02 in connection with a $1B convertible offering, giving management strong incentive for accuracy. Preliminary-to-final audit revisions material enough to shift the outcome are uncommon, but not impossible.
Material update from Feb 11 8-K discloses preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M (unaudited). With Q1+Q2 at ~$3-4M and Q3 at $14.7M, implied H2 2025 revenue is ~$46-54M, meeting or exceeding the $50M threshold in most scenarios. Discount reflects preliminary/unaudited status pending 10-K audit and prior 79% Q2 guidance miss undermining management credibility.
Preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M disclosed in Feb 11, 2026 8-K filing implies H2 revenue of ~$59-67M, well above the $50M threshold. Even at the conservative low end ($63M FY), H2 2025 would be ~$46M — only $4M short of guidance. Residual risks include preliminary-to-audited downward revision (~5%) and higher-than-estimated Q1-Q3 revenue (~8%).
Material update (Feb 11, 2026 8-K) discloses preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M. With Q1-Q3 at ~$17M, H2 reaches ~$46-54M, comfortably exceeding the $50M threshold even at low end after accounting for conservative H1 estimates. 8-K disclosure for $1B offering pricing carries strong institutional accuracy incentive.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if AST SpaceMobile's combined Q3 + Q4 2025 GAAP revenue (as reported in the FY2025 10-K or Q4 2025 earnings release) equals or exceeds $50M. Resolves NO if combined H2 2025 GAAP revenue is below $50M. Q3 2025 revenue of $14.7M is already reported; this effectively tests whether Q4 2025 revenue reaches approximately $35.3M or higher.
Resolution Source
AST SpaceMobile FY2025 10-K filing, Q4 2025 8-K earnings release, or earnings call transcript
Source Trigger
Q4 2025 revenue vs H2 guidance ($50-75M)
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