Will AST SpaceMobile receive FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) authorization by December 31, 2026?

The FCC granted SpaceX an SCS license in December 2025, establishing clear regulatory precedent for D2D service licensing. However, Part 25 applications for 248-satellite NGSO constellations are complex, and with an active adversarial complaint filed January 2026, the FCC faces procedural obligations that extend the timeline. With approximately 11 months remaining and no fixed FCC processing timeline, resolution by December 2026 is possible but not the base case.

SpaceX filed a formal FCC complaint in January 2026 alleging orbital debris and licensing inconsistencies against AST. SpaceX has enormous regulatory resources and credibility as an incumbent SCS licensee, giving the complaint substantive weight. Debris concerns may trigger additional environmental review obligations. The complaint's technical merit is unknown, but even procedurally managing a formal complaint consumes FCC bandwidth and creates delay risk that makes 2026 resolution less likely.

The current political environment is generally pro-space and pro-commercial broadband deployment. Bipartisan support for rural connectivity and US competitiveness in space-based communications creates a favorable backdrop. However, the FCC is an independent agency and SpaceX — itself a major beneficiary of pro-space policy — is the party opposing AST's application. The political tailwind is real but modest, and unlikely to override technical review processes or accelerate a contested proceeding.

Weighing all factors: SpaceX precedent is positive, $1B+ MNO partnerships create commercial pressure, and political environment is favorable. Against this: SpaceX complaint creates adversarial proceeding, FCC already constrained AST with 20-satellite cap, and insider activity is strikingly negative ($165M sales vs $149K purchases, CTO 94.4% liquidated, American Tower exiting). The insider selling pattern suggests those with the most information do not expect near-term regulatory resolution.

Base rates for FCC Part 25 applications involving novel satellite constellations of this scale typically require 12-24+ months of processing. AST's application covers 248 NGSO satellites — a complex constellation requiring spectrum coordination and debris analysis. The active adversarial proceeding filed January 2026 extends expected processing time further. Resolving a contested application of this complexity within approximately 11 months would be unusually fast by FCC historical standards.

AT&T, Verizon, and other major MNOs have $1B+ in contracted revenue tied to AST's FCC authorization. US competitiveness in satellite broadband and rural connectivity gap closing are politically salient. However, commercial pressure has historically had limited ability to accelerate FCC technical review — the agency is structurally insulated from industry lobbying. MNO partnerships are necessary conditions for eventual approval but do not materially accelerate the timeline for 2026 resolution.

SpaceX SCS license creates positive precedent, but SpaceX complaint and FCC's 20-satellite cap both signal regulatory friction. Massive insider selling ($165M vs $149K) suggests insiders do not expect near-term resolution. Eleven months is tight for a contested FCC proceeding.

Historical analogies are unfavorable: LightSquared/Ligado spectrum approval took 10+ years with interference complaints, Dish Network's satellite license took multiple years with conditions. For novel frameworks with active opposition from a well-resourced competitor, FCC rarely resolves within a single year. The adversarial dynamic is more consistent with multi-year proceedings than 11-month resolution.

Positive precedent exists from SpaceX SCS grant. Active opposition complicates the timeline. With 11 months remaining for a complex, contested application, the probability favors extension into 2027. Roughly one-in-three chance of 2026 resolution.