Will AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao depart the company by December 31, 2026?

The dual signal of 94.4% equity liquidation and RSU grant exclusion is strong evidence. SPAC base rate at 4.5 years post-merger supports elevated turnover. However, data gaps on unvested equity, personal financial circumstances, and aerospace CTO specialization create meaningful uncertainty.

Counter-argument focused: CTO retained 4,750 shares rather than fully exiting. Deep-tech aerospace CTO roles have high switching costs. RSU exclusion is a single data point with multiple benign explanations. 10b5-1 pre-planned selling is consistent with personal financial planning without departure intent.

Dual signal of 94.4% liquidation and RSU exclusion is strong. SPAC companies 4.5 years post-merger have elevated turnover, and the 10.5-month window is generous. However, unvested equity data gaps and aerospace specialization anchor create meaningful uncertainty.

The RSU exclusion combined with 94.4% liquidation is the strongest available leading indicator. Two independent lenses flagged this separately with unanimous agreement. However, the 10-month window introduces timing uncertainty, and plausible alternative explanations exist.

10b5-1 plans are pre-scheduled and don't require departure intent. Unknown unvested RSU holdings could indicate ongoing economic alignment. CTOs at deep-tech aerospace companies typically remain through critical deployment milestones. The 10-month window introduces substantial timing uncertainty.

RSU exclusion is the primary signal — when a company issues retention grants to CEO, CFO, COO, and President but omits CTO, that is a forward-looking institutional signal of expected departure. The 94.4% liquidation confirms minimal economic alignment. SPAC-era turnover base rates at 4.5 years post-merger support departure.

CTO's 94.4% equity liquidation combined with RSU grant exclusion is a two-part leading indicator flagged by committee at E3 with unanimous agreement. Material data gaps on unvested equity and alternative explanations create offsetting uncertainty.

Strong governance misalignment signal from dual indicators. SPAC cohort base rate provides additional support. Moderated by data gaps on unvested equity and technical milestone timing uncertainty.

Committee flagged GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT as MISALIGNED (E3, MEDIUM-HIGH) with CTO as primary evidence. However, alternative explanations, unknown unvested equity, and space company CTO tenure patterns create meaningful uncertainty.