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Will combined capex guidance from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta remain above $200B for FY2026?

Resolves October 31, 2026(227d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

80%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement88%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

AI capex sustainability is the macro condition underpinning Bloom's growth thesis. Management explicitly anchors the narrative to Amazon's $200B and Google's $175B capex. If combined hyperscaler capex guidance remains above $200B, the demand thesis holds. A deceleration would directly impact new orders and potentially backlog conversion timelines.

REVENUE_DURABILITYEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 72% – 82%Aggregate: 80%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

82%

All four hyperscalers have publicly committed to massive 2026 capex. Amazon alone guided ~$200B. These are multi-year infrastructure programs with long lead times on data center construction. Even if AI sentiment shifts, committed construction projects continue for quarters. $200B combined is well below the sum of individual guidance.

All 4 have publicly committedMulti-year construction programs$200B combined is conservative thresholdPhysical infrastructure has momentum

opusRun 2

78%

The $200B threshold is set against a backdrop where Amazon alone targets $200B. Combined guidance is likely $500-600B+. For the combined to fall below $200B, all four would need to cut capex by 60-70%, which would represent an unprecedented reversal of committed infrastructure spending. Even the 2022-2023 cloud optimization cycle saw only modest capex moderation, not cuts of this magnitude.

$200B threshold is low vs combined guidanceWould require 60-70% cut across all four2022-2023 precedent showed modest moderationUnprecedented reversal needed

opusRun 3

80%

Even a skeptic on the AI cycle must acknowledge that data centers under construction will be completed, orders for equipment have been placed, and utility interconnection agreements are signed. The question is about guidance remaining above $200B, and guidance revision down from current levels to below $200B combined would require a severe global recession scenario.

Construction in progress continuesEquipment orders placedUtility agreements signedSevere recession needed for miss

sonnetRun 1

75%

Current guidance is well above $200B combined. However, the question is about guidance as of Q2 2026 earnings calls, which is 6-7 months away. Macro shocks, tariff escalation, or an AI winter could prompt guidance revisions. Medium confidence because external events could shift the landscape.

Current guidance far above threshold7 months of potential disruptionMacro shock riskAI winter possibility

sonnetRun 2

80%

The combined capex from just Amazon and Google alone exceeds $200B. Microsoft and Meta add hundreds of billions more. For the combined to fall below $200B, each company would need to slash capex to historically low levels. These companies have the cash flows and strategic conviction to maintain spending.

Amazon + Google alone exceed thresholdStrong cash flows support spendingStrategic conviction in AIHistorical capex floors

sonnetRun 3

72%

While current commitments are strong, I'm slightly more cautious because tech capex guidance can shift quickly. Meta cut capex significantly in 2023 during its 'year of efficiency.' However, that was from a lower base and AI was less established. The structural demand for AI compute is stronger now.

Meta 2023 precedent for rapid cutsAI structural demand stronger nowGuidance can shift quicklyLower base in 2023

haikuRun 1

80%

Combined hyperscaler capex is massively above $200B. Very unlikely to fall below this threshold barring extreme events.

Massive buffer above thresholdExtreme events needed for miss

haikuRun 2

78%

High probability given current commitments. Some uncertainty from macro events but the threshold is set low relative to current plans.

Low threshold relative to plansMacro uncertainty is the main risk

haikuRun 3

82%

All signs point to sustained or increasing hyperscaler capex. AI demand is physical and growing. The threshold is conservative.

Sustained or increasing capexPhysical demandConservative threshold

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the combined annual capex guidance from Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, and Meta for FY2026 remains at or above $200B total as of their Q2 2026 earnings calls. Resolves NO if combined guidance falls below $200B.

Resolution Source

Q2 2026 earnings transcripts for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta

Source Trigger

Track hyperscaler quarterly capex guidance for signs of deceleration. Key companies: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta

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