Will Berkshire Hathaway announce or close a major acquisition (>$10B enterprise value) under Greg Abel's leadership by year-end 2026?

Base rate for Berkshire major acquisition in any year is roughly 25% (one every 3-5 years). Abel has 10.5 months remaining in 2026 with $381.6B in cash -- the largest corporate war chest in history. However, Buffett himself couldn't find a deal in 2025 despite wanting to deploy, and Abel's deal-sourcing capability is entirely untested at E1 evidence. The $10B threshold is achievable (Alleghany was $11.6B in 2022), but Abel's stated 'identical philosophy' means he won't force deployment. The Berkshire culture explicitly rejects acquisitions for the sake of action.

Supply constraint is binding: the universe of private companies with $10B+ EV that Berkshire could acquire is extremely small. Most targets at that scale are public, requiring significant premiums. Berkshire doesn't do hostile bids, so targets must come willingly. Abel's $4.3B Google purchase shows comfort with public equities but the question excludes minority stakes. No recession or market dislocation is evident as of February 2026 that would create the kind of distressed opportunities Berkshire historically capitalizes on. The net equity selling posture in 2025 suggests Berkshire views the market as expensive.

Acknowledging possibility of behind-the-scenes activity: major acquisitions take months of negotiation, and Berkshire has historically moved quickly once terms are agreed (Alleghany announced weeks after initial contact). Abel may already be in discussions. Year 1 as CEO creates implicit pressure to demonstrate capital allocation capability -- the Moat Mapper, Myth Meter, and Black Swan Beacon all identified this as a critical de-escalation trigger. However, zero insider purchases and the 'identical philosophy' commitment constrain forced action. The $10B threshold (lower than the $20B monitoring trigger) makes this slightly more achievable than the monitoring trigger implies.

The facts are clear: Abel is 45 days into his role with $381.6B in cash, but Buffett -- the greatest capital allocator in history -- couldn't deploy in all of 2025 with the same war chest. Abel's operational background at BHE (utility management) is fundamentally different from deal-sourcing. His deal-sourcing capability is rated E1 (lowest evidence level). Base rate ~25% adjusted down for new CEO learning curve and elevated valuations, partially offset by massive cash pile creating deployment pressure and the lower $10B threshold.

The probability path to YES requires either: (a) a recession creating distressed opportunities, (b) a private company approaching Berkshire (as Alleghany did in 2022), or (c) Abel lowering Buffett's valuation standards. Option (c) would be disastrous for Berkshire's brand and highly unlikely in year 1. Options (a) and (b) are exogenous events with low individual probability in any given 10-month window. Buffett explicitly stated 'things don't come along in an orderly fashion,' and the lack of any insider buying suggests no imminent catalyst. Todd Combs' departure to JPMorgan further reduces deal-sourcing bandwidth.

10.5 months is a meaningful timeframe -- a lot can happen in markets. The $10B threshold is achievable: Berkshire could acquire a large utility, railroad-adjacent business, or industrial company where Abel has deep expertise from his BHE background. Abel's operational knowledge of energy/utility assets might make him MORE likely to acquire in sectors he understands well compared to Buffett's broader capital allocation approach. Berkshire's reputation means deals come to them. However, no deal pipeline is disclosed, the net selling posture continues, and Abel has explicitly prioritized internal opportunities first.

Berkshire does ~1 major deal every 3-5 years. Last was Alleghany in 2022. 2025 had zero acquisitions. Base rate ~25% adjusted down ~3% for new CEO uncertainty and elevated market valuations, partially offset by massive cash pile creating deployment pressure.

Abel is an operator, not a deal-maker. His background is running BHE utilities, not sourcing transformative acquisitions. Market valuations remain elevated with no recession signal. Berkshire's discipline means they wait for 'fat pitches.' The 10.5 months remaining provides time but the structural barriers (narrow target universe, elevated prices, untested deal-sourcing) outweigh the timeframe advantage.

$381.6B cash pile creates implicit deployment pressure and Abel may want to prove himself in year 1. But Buffett couldn't find deals in 2025 and Abel has less experience. Base rate minus new CEO discount, slightly offset by the lower $10B threshold and Abel's potential motivation to demonstrate capital allocation capability.