Will Ajit Jain file Form 4 disclosing additional discretionary BRK share sales in H1 2026?

Jain stepped down as insurance chief, reducing his operational information advantage and the reputational cost of selling. Having demonstrated willingness to sell discretionary (not under 10b5-1) at near-ATH prices in Aug-Sep 2025, the psychological barrier is broken. His reduced operational role provides cover for diversification, and BRK prices remain elevated making the same value-timing rationale valid. However, the 6-month window is specific, he still holds ~$68M in BRK, and Buffett's zero-selling culture exerts gravitational pull. The Black Swan Beacon's 15-30% range is reasonable; I adjust slightly above the midpoint given the broken friction barrier.

The committee debate between 'routine diversification' and 'red flag' is central. Jain's choice NOT to use a 10b5-1 plan is notable -- a 10b5-1 would provide legal cover and reduce scrutiny. By selling discretionary, Jain either (a) hasn't bothered setting up a plan, suggesting opportunistic rather than planned sales, or (b) prefers flexibility to sell at specific price points. If opportunistic, future sales depend on whether price conditions persist -- they do. However, he might establish a 10b5-1 plan going forward, which would technically NOT trigger resolution (excluded from criteria). The narrow resolution criteria (discretionary only, not 10b5-1, not gifts) reduce the probability below the headline 'will Jain sell' probability.

The committee explicitly noted 'insufficient data for definitive interpretation' due to only a 12-month analysis window. If Jain has never sold before in decades at BRK, the Aug-Sep 2025 episode is highly anomalous -- possibly a one-off post-transition liquidity event tied to stepping down from the insurance chief role. If he has prior sale history, it's less significant. The resolution criteria are narrow: must be discretionary and open market. Gifts (74 Class B shares donated), 10b5-1 sales, and tax-related transactions don't count. This specificity reduces probability below the general 'any further Form 4 activity' estimate. I center near the upper end of the Black Swan Beacon range given the demonstrated willingness.

Jain is in his early 70s and has stepped down from his most important operational role while retaining a board seat. He sold discretionary at near-ATH without 10b5-1 protection. The pattern is consistent with an executive who is winding down, diversifying, and reducing concentrated risk. Having already demonstrated willingness, the friction to sell again is materially lower. Combined with Combs' departure and Abel's unknown holdings, there's a broader pattern of operating leadership reducing engagement. However, Buffett's strong cultural influence against selling and reputational considerations within the BRK ecosystem provide meaningful counterweight. I lean toward the upper end of the Black Swan Beacon's 15-30% range.

The resolution criteria are notably narrow: only discretionary open market sales count. Even if Jain continues to reduce his position, he could (a) establish a 10b5-1 plan going forward, which would NOT count, (b) make charitable gifts, which would NOT count, or (c) do tax-related transactions, which would NOT count. The probability of ANY position reduction is higher than the probability of SPECIFICALLY discretionary open market sales. Additionally, the Aug-Sep 2025 sales may have been a one-time diversification following his step-down, and having achieved ~10% diversification, the immediate pressure to sell more may have diminished. The committee resolved this as 'concerning but not definitive' -- the 'not definitive' portion weighs against expecting pattern repetition.

The Black Swan Beacon's 15-30% is the committee's informed estimate for 'additional Jain share sales in 2026' -- this is a full-year estimate, and the question covers only H1 (6 months). If selling is roughly time-uniform over the year, the H1-specific probability would be somewhat lower than the annual, but selling is lumpy by nature. Upward adjustment factors: broken psychological barrier, reduced operational role, persistent high prices. Downward factors: narrow resolution criteria (discretionary only), Buffett culture, possibility that Aug-Sep 2025 was a one-time event. The committee's unresolved debate on severity (Opus: 'moderately concerning' vs. Sonnet: 'red flag') suggests genuine uncertainty. I land near the midpoint of the Black Swan Beacon range.

One prior discretionary sale episode at ATH, stepped-down operational role, no 10b5-1 plan. Black Swan Beacon base rate: 15-30%. Demonstrated willingness adjusts slightly upward. Narrow resolution criteria (discretionary only) adjust slightly downward. Net: upper-middle of the base rate range.

Jain sold ~10.5% of personal holdings in Aug-Sep 2025. If this was a one-time portfolio adjustment tied to stepping down from the insurance chief role, unlikely to repeat within 6 months. If it's the start of a trend, more likely. No prior history available to distinguish. Committee said 'concerning but not definitive.' The one-off interpretation is the more parsimonious explanation. Stay near the lower portion of the base rate.

Six-month window, one prior discretionary sale episode, stepped-down executive with reduced operational role, narrow resolution criteria (discretionary only). Committee base rate via Black Swan Beacon: 15-30%. The midpoint of the range (22.5%) adjusted slightly upward for demonstrated willingness yields 25%. Key uncertainty: whether Aug-Sep 2025 was a one-off or the start of a pattern.