Will the ITC issue an initial determination finding CAT infringed any Bobcat patent by December 2026?

The dominant factor is timing. The ITC complaint was filed December 2025, and typical ITC Section 337 investigations take 15-18 months from institution to initial determination. Even assuming institution occurs within 1-2 months of filing (early 2026), the earliest expected ID would be mid-to-late 2027 — well past the December 2026 deadline. The prediction context's own staleness note acknowledges this: 'initial determination may be expected in mid-to-late 2027, potentially making the December 2026 deadline relevant only if the investigation is expedited or resolved early.' However, there are non-zero paths to YES: early settlement that somehow resolves as infringement admission (unlikely — settlement resolves NO per criteria), or an unusually expedited investigation. The 14-patent breadth and Wirtgen precedent are relevant to the probability of eventual infringement finding, but less relevant given the timing constraint. I estimate roughly 20-25% probability that procedural acceleration or expedited scheduling brings the ID within the 2026 window.

I focus on the procedural timeline. Section 337 investigations have a target completion date set at institution, typically 15-18 months. The ITC has been trending toward faster resolutions in recent years, but even an aggressive 12-month target from institution (say February 2026) would place the initial determination at February 2027. The December 2026 cutoff requires an investigation completed in approximately 10-11 months from probable institution, which is at the extreme lower tail of ITC investigation durations. Settlement is the most likely path to resolution before December 2026, but the resolution criteria specify that settlement resolves NO. The Wirtgen precedent is informative about CAT's vulnerability to patent claims but irrelevant to the timing question. Multi-jurisdiction filing suggests Bobcat is pursuing a comprehensive strategy, not seeking quick ITC settlement. Probability is meaningfully below the 25% base rate for ITC infringement findings because the timing constraint eliminates the most probable window.

While the typical timeline strongly favors NO, I assign somewhat higher probability than pure timeline analysis would suggest because of several factors: (1) ITC investigations can be expedited when the complainant requests and demonstrates need for urgency; (2) with 14 patents, there may be straightforward infringement claims on some patents that could be resolved via partial initial determination on an accelerated schedule; (3) the ITC has institutional incentives to resolve cases efficiently, and a well-resourced complainant like Doosan Bobcat with clear domestic industry arguments can push for faster proceedings. However, confidence is LOW because I lack data on Bobcat's specific procedural requests and the ALJ assignment. The prediction context notes patent outcomes are E1 evidence level — inherently unpredictable — and we have no patent-level analysis to assess claim strength. The uncertainty here is genuinely high, and the wide range of plausible outcomes (10-35%) reflects both timeline risk and information gaps.

This question is fundamentally about timing, not patent merits. The ITC complaint was filed December 2025. Standard ITC investigations run 15-18 months from institution. The prediction context's own staleness note says initial determination is expected mid-to-late 2027. The December 2026 deadline gives roughly 12 months from filing, 10-11 months from probable institution. This is exceptionally tight. The only paths to YES require either: (a) the ALJ sets an unusually aggressive target date, or (b) some procedural shortcut. Both are possible but improbable. Settlement resolves NO. The Wirtgen precedent and 14-patent breadth affect the eventual outcome, not the timing. I set probability at 0.20 — a meaningful chance of accelerated proceedings, but timeline strongly favors NO.

The math is straightforward. ITC institution typically occurs 30-35 days after complaint filing, placing it in January-February 2026. The ALJ then sets a target date, almost always 15-18 months from institution. Even at 15 months from a January 2026 institution, we reach April 2027. The initial determination precedes the target date by 2-4 months, but that still places the ID at December 2026 to February 2027 — barely touching the deadline even in the most optimistic scenario. Factor in that complex patent cases with 14 patents and multiple accused products (skid steers, compact track loaders, mini excavators, wheel loaders, track loaders, bulldozers) tend to take LONGER, not shorter. Bobcat's multi-jurisdiction strategy suggests a deliberate, comprehensive approach, not a rush to judgment. I assign 0.15 — lower than colleagues because the breadth of the case works against expedited resolution.

The base rate for ITC investigations completing within 12 months of filing is quite low — perhaps 10-15% historically. However, recent ITC trends have shown some compression of timelines. I adjust upward slightly from the base rate because: (1) Bobcat is a well-resourced complainant with clear domestic manufacturing; (2) some of the 14 patents may present clear-cut infringement questions amenable to early summary determination; (3) the ITC has been responsive to complainant requests for expedited proceedings in certain cases. Against this, the complexity of 14 patents across multiple product categories argues for a longer investigation. The resolution criteria require only an initial determination, not a final commission opinion, which slightly favors YES since the ID typically precedes the target date. Net assessment: low but non-trivial probability.

Timing is the decisive factor. ITC complaints filed December 2025 typically produce initial determinations 15-18 months later (March-June 2027). December 2026 deadline is too early for the standard timeline. Settlement resolves NO. Probability is low.

While typical ITC timelines favor NO, the 14-patent breadth means any single patent could yield an early infringement finding. Wirtgen precedent shows CAT is vulnerable. Some ALJs set aggressive schedules. The question only requires an initial determination on any one patent, not all 14. This slightly raises the probability above what pure timeline analysis suggests. But confidence is LOW given no patent-level data.

The prediction context explicitly flags mid-to-late 2027 as the expected ID timeline. December 2026 is 6-12 months too early. The most likely path to YES — expedited proceedings — is improbable given case complexity. Settlement resolves NO. Probability is well below 25%.