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CAVAActive

Will CAVA report full-year FY2026 same-restaurant sales growth of 3% or above?

Resolves February 28, 2027(239d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

62%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement98%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Same-restaurant sales are the single most important metric for the narrative. Guided 3-5% for FY2026 after Q4 decelerated to 0.5%. If comps sustain above 3%, validates the growth story. If negative, 'the growth narrative breaks' per synthesis.

REVENUE_DURABILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 58%63%Aggregate: 62%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
63%

Management guided 3-5% and Q1 is tracking above guide. The 3% threshold is the low end of guidance. CAVA has consistently met or exceeded guidance. Conservative pricing provides a lever if traffic softens. Seasonal strength in Q2-Q3 supports the full-year average. Above 60%.

Q1 tracking above guideLow end of guidance rangeSeasonal strength ahead
opusRun 2
60%

Q4 deceleration to +0.5% is concerning but partly lapping-driven. The full-year requires averaging 3%+ which means Q2-Q4 need to sustain above 3%. If Q1 is above guide, the remaining quarters carry less burden. Management has a track record of conservative guidance. Around 60%.

Q4 deceleration partly lappingQ1 strength reduces burdenConservative guidance track record
opusRun 3
62%

The comp deceleration reflects normalization from unsustainable 10%+ levels, not demand erosion. Traffic-driven growth (not pricing) is a quality signal. Mediterranean cuisine seasonal patterns favor warmer months. Lean YES at 60%+.

Normalization not erosionTraffic-driven quality growthSeasonal patterns favorable
sonnetRun 1
62%

Management guided 3-5% with Q1 tracking above. 3% is a conservative threshold. Tariff-driven consumer softening is a risk but CAVA's value pricing provides relative protection. Above 60%.

Conservative thresholdQ1 above guideValue pricing protects
sonnetRun 2
58%

Consumer spending uncertainty from tariff impacts could dampen traffic. New Midwest locations may have weaker comps initially. The full-year threshold of 3% is achievable but not guaranteed if macro conditions deteriorate. Around 58%.

Consumer uncertainty from tariffsMidwest may drag averageAchievable but not guaranteed
sonnetRun 3
63%

Strong execution track record, Q1 above guide, seasonal tailwinds. Management has consistently beaten comp guidance. Above 60%.

Execution track recordQ1 strengthSeasonal tailwinds
haikuRun 1
62%

Q1 above guide, conservative threshold, seasonal support. Above 60%.

Q1 strongConservative thresholdSeasonal support
haikuRun 2
58%

Consumer uncertainty adds risk. But 3% is achievable for this operator. Around 58%.

Consumer riskAchievable thresholdStrong operator
haikuRun 3
63%

Management guidance + Q1 strength + seasonal patterns support. Above 60%.

GuidanceQ1 strengthSeasonal patterns

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if full-year FY2026 same-restaurant sales growth is 3.0% or above. Resolves NO if below 3.0%.

Resolution Source

CAVA FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

Q4 comps decelerated to 0.5%; guided 3-5% FY2026; Q1 tracking above guide

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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