CAVAActive

Will CAVA open 74 or more net new restaurants in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

65%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Unit growth is the primary revenue growth engine. Guided 74-76 net new in FY2026. Execution depends on the people pipeline which CEO identified as 'biggest governor to growth.'

OPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 63% – 67%Aggregate: 65%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

67%

CAVA guided 74-76 and has consistently met unit opening targets. $393M cash with zero debt eliminates funding constraints. AGM program 60% filled on schedule. Unit economics are compelling. Management has operational credibility. Above 65%.

Consistent execution on targetsNo funding constraintsAGM pipeline on track

opusRun 2

63%

People pipeline is the acknowledged constraint. 74 is the low end of 74-76 guidance. Even slight delays could push a few openings into January. Real estate availability in new markets adds uncertainty. But management track record is strong. Above 60%.

People pipeline constraint74 is low endReal estate uncertainty in new markets

opusRun 3

65%

COO hire and field leadership restructuring support execution. $260K preopening cost per unit is reasonable. FY2025 achieved 72 so 74 is a modest step-up. Around 65%.

COO hire supports executionModest step-up from FY2025Reasonable preopening costs

sonnetRun 1

65%

Strong track record meeting guidance. Funding is not an issue. People pipeline is main risk but AGM program is on schedule. Above 60%.

Track recordFunding no issueAGM on schedule

sonnetRun 2

63%

74 is achievable but talent pipeline and real estate timing create execution risk. Management credibility is high. Around 63%.

Talent riskReal estate timingManagement credibility

sonnetRun 3

67%

Unit economics are compelling, funding is unlimited, and management has operational credibility. The 74 threshold is the low end of guidance. Strong lean YES.

Compelling economicsUnlimited fundingLow end of guidance

haikuRun 1

65%

Track record, funding, and economics support. People pipeline is constraint. Above 60%.

Track recordPeople constraintAbove 60%

haikuRun 2

63%

Modest step-up from 72 to 74. Achievable but people pipeline adds risk. Around 63%.

Modest step-upPeople riskAchievable

haikuRun 3

65%

Strong operator with resources. Low end of guidance. Above 60%.

Strong operatorLow endResources available

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CAVA opens 74 or more net new restaurants in FY2026. Resolves NO if fewer than 74.

Resolution Source

CAVA FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

People pipeline is 'biggest governor to growth'; 74-76 net new guided; AGM program 60% filled

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

View CAVA Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis