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CAVAActive

Will CAVA's FY2026 new restaurant opening class maintain NRO productivity above 90%?

Resolves February 28, 2027(239d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

65%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

NRO (new restaurant opening) productivity declining below 80% would signal greenfield market demand is not sustaining. Current >100%. Tests whether Mediterranean cuisine translates to new markets.

UNIT_ECONOMICSCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 62% – 67%Aggregate: 65%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

67%

Currently >100% and 'strongest class to date' in FY2025. The 90% threshold allows for some deterioration. Strength across all market categories. AGM program supports operational quality. Above 65%.

>100% current with room to 90%Strength across categoriesAGM program supports quality

opusRun 2

63%

Midwest expansion is the key risk — Mediterranean familiarity is lower. But 90% is a generous threshold (current >100%). Even modest underperformance in new markets keeps the class above 90%. Around 63%.

Midwest riskGenerous 90% thresholdModest underperformance still passes

opusRun 3

65%

CAVA's real estate selection discipline and operational infrastructure (KDS, TurboChef) support consistent NRO performance. The company opens in markets where they have real estate intelligence. Above 65%.

Real estate disciplineOperational infrastructureMarket intelligence

sonnetRun 1

65%

Strong track record with generous threshold. Midwest is risk but blended class should stay above 90%. Above 60%.

Track recordGenerous thresholdBlended class

sonnetRun 2

62%

Higher proportion of greenfield openings in FY2026 adds more uncertainty than prior years. But >100% provides substantial buffer. Around 62%.

More greenfieldSubstantial bufferAround 62%

sonnetRun 3

67%

Consistent execution and >100% baseline. 90% allows meaningful deterioration. Strong lean YES.

Consistent execution>100% baseline90% allows deterioration

haikuRun 1

65%

Strong baseline, generous threshold. Above 60%.

Strong baselineGenerous threshold

haikuRun 2

63%

Midwest risk exists but blended performance should hold. Around 63%.

Midwest riskBlended holds

haikuRun 3

65%

Track record and buffer support. Above 60%.

Track recordBuffer

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 NRO class maintains productivity above 90% relative to existing restaurant average. Resolves NO if NRO productivity falls to 90% or below.

Resolution Source

CAVA earnings releases and investor commentary

Source Trigger

NRO productivity >100% but expanding into greenfield Midwest markets with lower familiarity

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSMEDIUM

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