Will CAVA's FY2026 new restaurant opening class maintain NRO productivity above 90%?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
NRO (new restaurant opening) productivity declining below 80% would signal greenfield market demand is not sustaining. Current >100%. Tests whether Mediterranean cuisine translates to new markets.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Currently >100% and 'strongest class to date' in FY2025. The 90% threshold allows for some deterioration. Strength across all market categories. AGM program supports operational quality. Above 65%.
Midwest expansion is the key risk — Mediterranean familiarity is lower. But 90% is a generous threshold (current >100%). Even modest underperformance in new markets keeps the class above 90%. Around 63%.
CAVA's real estate selection discipline and operational infrastructure (KDS, TurboChef) support consistent NRO performance. The company opens in markets where they have real estate intelligence. Above 65%.
Strong track record with generous threshold. Midwest is risk but blended class should stay above 90%. Above 60%.
Higher proportion of greenfield openings in FY2026 adds more uncertainty than prior years. But >100% provides substantial buffer. Around 62%.
Consistent execution and >100% baseline. 90% allows meaningful deterioration. Strong lean YES.
Strong baseline, generous threshold. Above 60%.
Midwest risk exists but blended performance should hold. Around 63%.
Track record and buffer support. Above 60%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if FY2026 NRO class maintains productivity above 90% relative to existing restaurant average. Resolves NO if NRO productivity falls to 90% or below.
Resolution Source
CAVA earnings releases and investor commentary
Source Trigger
NRO productivity >100% but expanding into greenfield Midwest markets with lower familiarity
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