CAVAActive

Will CAVA achieve full-year FY2026 restaurant-level profit margin above 23%?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

58%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Restaurant-level profit margin of 23.7-24.2% guided for FY2026 after 21.4% in Q4. Achieving above 23% validates that unit economics scale with growth. Below 22% for consecutive quarters would signal structural compression.

UNIT_ECONOMICSREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 60%Aggregate: 58%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Guided 23.7-24.2% but Q4 was only 21.4%. The step-up requires Q2-Q3 seasonal strength to pull the annual average above 23%. FY2025 full-year was ~23.5% suggesting the annual cadence supports above 23%. Tariff headwinds on food costs (~50bps) create modest risk. Around 58%.

Seasonal improvement expectedFY2025 precedent at ~23.5%Tariff headwinds on food costs

opusRun 2

57%

Management has guided conservatively and delivered. KDS and TurboChef improve throughput. But labor costs and food inflation create headwinds. The 23% threshold is at the lower end of guidance. Around 57%.

Conservative guidanceTechnology investments helpLabor and food inflation headwinds

opusRun 3

60%

Management's operational track record is strong. 23% is below the guided midpoint of ~24%. Seasonal patterns strongly favor H1 improvement. Conservative pricing provides a margin lever. Around 60%.

Below guided midpointSeasonal patterns favorablePricing lever available

sonnetRun 1

57%

Q4 at 21.4% needs significant improvement. Seasonal and pricing levers available. Tariffs add uncertainty. Around 57%.

Q4 trough needs improvementLevers availableTariff uncertainty

sonnetRun 2

55%

Tariff headwinds on food costs could be larger than the 50bps estimate. Labor cost pressure in tight markets. But management has operational credibility. Around 55%.

Tariff headwinds potentially largerLabor pressureOperational credibility

sonnetRun 3

60%

FY2025 was ~23.5% and FY2026 guidance is 23.7-24.2%. Below guided range threshold. Seasonal strength ahead. Around 60%.

FY2025 precedentBelow guided rangeSeasonal strength

haikuRun 1

58%

Achievable based on FY2025 precedent and seasonal patterns. Tariff risk exists. Around 58%.

FY2025 precedentSeasonal supportTariff risk

haikuRun 2

55%

Food cost inflation and tariffs create headwinds. But operator quality is high. Around 55%.

Cost headwindsHigh quality operatorModerate probability

haikuRun 3

58%

Below guided range. Seasonal support. Management track record. Around 58%.

Below guidanceSeasonalTrack record

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if full-year FY2026 restaurant-level profit margin exceeds 23.0%. Resolves NO if 23.0% or below.

Resolution Source

CAVA FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

Q4 RLP margin 21.4%; guided 23.7-24.2% FY2026; below 22% for consecutive quarters signals compression

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSHIGH

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