Will the former New Gold assets (Rainy River + New Afton combined) report AISC below $900/oz in any quarter of H1 2026 under Coeur reporting?

New Afton 2026 guidance is $1,000-$1,200/oz with copper credit at $1.20-$1.35/lb. The single-mine threshold is materially easier than the original consolidated NGD threshold. A strong copper-credit quarter at New Afton plus C-Zone throughput could push individual AISC into the $800s. Two-quarter window doubles at-bats. Conditional on disclosure (which is ~75% likely per companion market), reach probability is ~55%.

Tail risk consideration: Q1 reporting disruption from CDE methodology harmonization could elevate reported figures. New Afton midpoint guidance is $1,100/oz — to print sub-$900 requires the lower tail. Copper price has been strong but realized prices in any given quarter can deviate. Two quarters helps, but integration disruption tilts Q1 unfavorably. Net 50%.

Voided original market sat at 56% for the harder consolidated threshold. The reformulated single-mine threshold should be at least as likely; but factoring in void risk on disclosure failure (~25%) the reported probability lands modestly below the original. Modeling target near 52%.

New Afton guidance midpoint $1,100 with copper credit upside. A strong copper quarter plus C-Zone throughput delivers sub-$900 probability around 55-60% conditional on disclosure. With the void path included, ~55% net.

Coin-flip. New Afton can clear $900 in a strong copper quarter, but guidance midpoint sits well above. Two-quarter window provides flexibility. Methodology and disclosure uncertainty tempers conviction.

Slight lean against. Guidance midpoints suggest the median quarter is at or above $1,000. Hitting sub-$900 requires favorable copper realization and high throughput simultaneously. Modest negative lean.

New Afton low-end guidance is $1,000. With strong copper, sub-$900 is reachable. Two quarters of opportunity. Lean YES.

Single-mine threshold + strong copper + two quarters = moderate YES lean around 55%.

Slight YES lean. Guidance midpoints above threshold but lower tail reachable. Settles near 52%.