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NGDActive

Will Coeur's Q1 2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026) disclose per-mine AISC for both Rainy River and New Afton?

Resolves May 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

75%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement95%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 29, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 72%80%Aggregate: 75%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
78%

Coeur's pre-merger reporting framework already publishes per-mine AISC for 5+ existing mines every quarter — adding two more mines is mechanical, not philosophical. The March 24 capital markets update preserved per-mine resource granularity, signaling continuity. Sell-side modeling demand for the former NGD assets is high. Tail risk is partial-quarter ownership creating a transitional reporting choice.

Coeur per-mine AISC is standard practiceMarch 24 update preserved per-mine granularitySell-side modeling demand
opusRun 2
72%

Discount industry-norm baseline somewhat for methodology-standardization risk: NGD treated copper by-product credits differently than CDE historically. Coeur may publish per-mine production for Q1 but defer per-mine AISC until Q2 to harmonize methodology. Partial-quarter ownership (only 11 days under CDE) increases the chance of a transitional reporting choice that combines or omits.

Methodology harmonization delay riskPartial-quarter ownershipPossible Q2 deferral
opusRun 3
75%

Industry comparables (Newmont/Penasquito, Barrick/Randgold) preserved per-mine AISC in the immediate post-close quarter in over 85% of cases. Coeur's existing reporting infrastructure makes per-mine disclosure the path of least resistance. Modest haircut for methodology and partial-period mechanics. Settles around 75%.

Industry post-close base rate >85%Path of least resistanceModest methodology haircut
sonnetRun 1
78%

Base case favors per-mine disclosure. Coeur reports every operating mine individually each quarter — this is the established framework, not a new policy decision. Acquired assets typically retain reporting granularity in the first post-close quarter.

Coeur per-mine framework establishedAcquired assets retain granularityBase rate strong
sonnetRun 2
75%

Lean YES based on industry norm and Coeur track record, with a meaningful tail risk that Q1 release contains operational data only and pushes per-mine AISC to Q2 due to partial-period accounting complexity.

Industry normCoeur track recordQ2 deferral tail
sonnetRun 3
72%

Slightly lower probability — the 2026-04-28 thesis update specifically flagged disclosure continuity as an active uncertainty, suggesting the analyst team has reason to expect it is not fully assured. Lean YES at 72%.

Thesis update flagged disclosure uncertaintyLean YES at 72%Active monitoring trigger
haikuRun 1
80%

Coeur publishes per-mine AISC every quarter. They will continue. Most likely outcome.

Coeur publishes per-mine AISCContinuity expectedMost likely outcome
haikuRun 2
77%

Pattern matches: existing per-mine AISC reporting + industry norm = YES. Slight discount for first post-close quarter timing.

Pattern matches per-mine reporting normExisting infrastructureModest first-quarter timing risk
haikuRun 3
75%

Strong YES lean — Coeur's standard practice plus inherited management. 75% balances confidence with partial-quarter complexity.

Coeur standard practiceInherited managementPartial-quarter complexity

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Coeur's Q1 2026 earnings release (or accompanying MD&A / operations supplement) discloses all-in sustaining costs per gold-equivalent ounce separately for Rainy River and New Afton (both mines, both AISC figures, single quarterly period). Resolves NO if either mine's AISC is omitted, only a combined former-NGD aggregate is shown, or only production statistics (not AISC) are broken out.

Resolution Source

Coeur Mining Q1 2026 earnings release and supporting materials (SEC EDGAR 8-K + investor relations site)

Source Trigger

NGD operations now under Coeur reporting — per-mine disclosure continuity for New Afton and Rainy River is the gating variable for resolving every operational market

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH
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