CNCActive

Will any major rating agency downgrade Centene's credit rating or issue a negative outlook by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 1, 2027(290d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement75%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 30% – 40%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

Q4 $1.1B loss and revenue contraction concerning for agencies. MCOs typically maintain IG due to regulatory capital. Rating agencies may issue negative outlook first. About 1 in 3 chance.

$1.1B loss concerningMCOs maintain IGNegative outlook more likely

opusRun 2

30%

Agencies slow to act, give turnaround time. If Q1-Q2 show improvement, ratings hold.

Slow to actTurnaround windowImprovement needed

opusRun 3

38%

Unusual combination of negatives. Broad scope (downgrade OR outlook) increases probability.

Unusual negativesBroad scope

sonnetRun 1

32%

IG MCOs rarely downgraded. But magnitude of issues unusual. Negative outlook more probable.

Rarely downgradedUnusual magnitude

sonnetRun 2

40%

Continued losses could trigger action. Write-down and litigation add credit risk.

Continued losses triggerWrite-down adds risk

sonnetRun 3

35%

$3 EPS guide provides recovery narrative. Agencies may wait for evidence. Q1-Q2 key.

Recovery narrativeQ1-Q2 key

haikuRun 1

35%

Negative outlook likely if losses continue. Combined about 35%.

Outlook likely35% combined

haikuRun 2

30%

Agencies give 12-18 months. May wait for reset year evidence.

12-18 month windowMay wait

haikuRun 3

38%

Cumulative negatives make some rating action probable.

Cumulative negativesAction probable

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if S&P Global Ratings, Moody's, or Fitch Ratings downgrades Centene Corporation's senior unsecured credit rating by one or more notches, or places the rating on negative outlook/credit watch negative, by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if ratings remain unchanged with stable outlook.

Resolution Source

S&P, Moody's, Fitch rating actions

Source Trigger

Credit rating surveillance — financial stress could trigger downgrade

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYMEDIUM

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