CNCActive

Will Centene achieve adjusted diluted EPS of at least $3.00 for FY2026?

Resolves February 15, 2027(335d)

IG: 1.00

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 50%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

45%

FY2025 delivered $2.08. $3.00 requires 44% improvement. Key drivers: ACA contraction improving HBR, Medicaid rate increases. Management withdrew guidance in 2025 — credibility impaired. Guide beat consensus of $2.50.

44% improvement requiredImpaired credibilityGuide above consensus

opusRun 2

40%

Multiple assumptions must hold simultaneously: HBR improvement, ACA contraction, no incremental risk adj losses. Joint probability lower. Management track record poor.

Multiple assumptionsJoint probability lowerPoor track record

opusRun 3

48%

MCOs historically deliver after reset years. The $3.00 may be sandbagged with upside. ACA contraction is the key catalyst.

MCO reset year patternPossible sandbaggingACA contraction catalyst

sonnetRun 1

42%

Pre-guidance consensus $2.50 reflects analyst skepticism. Credibility discount warranted after July 2025 withdrawal.

Analyst skepticismCredibility discountBelow 50%

sonnetRun 2

50%

True coin-flip. Arguments balanced. ACA contraction helps but adverse selection could offset.

Balanced argumentsCoin-flipHigh uncertainty

sonnetRun 3

43%

All segments must improve simultaneously with 3 different headwinds. Joint probability below 50%.

All segments must improveThree headwindsJoint probability low

haikuRun 1

45%

44% growth needed from impaired management. Near coin-flip.

44% growthImpaired credibility

haikuRun 2

48%

Clear improvement drivers exist but execution risk high.

Drivers existExecution risk

haikuRun 3

42%

Base case slightly below $3.00. Multiple headwinds could offset drivers.

Below target base caseHeadwinds material

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Centene's FY2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS (as reported in the FY2026 earnings release, expected February 2027) is $3.00 or above. Resolves NO if below $3.00. Uses Centene's definition of adjusted diluted EPS as reported.

Resolution Source

Centene FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $3.00 — credibility test after FY2025 miss

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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