Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

CNCActive

Will Centene achieve adjusted diluted EPS of at least $3.00 for FY2026?

Resolves February 15, 2027(200d)

IG: 1.00

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 50%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

45%

FY2025 delivered $2.08. $3.00 requires 44% improvement. Key drivers: ACA contraction improving HBR, Medicaid rate increases. Management withdrew guidance in 2025 — credibility impaired. Guide beat consensus of $2.50.

44% improvement requiredImpaired credibilityGuide above consensus

opusRun 2

40%

Multiple assumptions must hold simultaneously: HBR improvement, ACA contraction, no incremental risk adj losses. Joint probability lower. Management track record poor.

Multiple assumptionsJoint probability lowerPoor track record

opusRun 3

48%

MCOs historically deliver after reset years. The $3.00 may be sandbagged with upside. ACA contraction is the key catalyst.

MCO reset year patternPossible sandbaggingACA contraction catalyst

sonnetRun 1

42%

Pre-guidance consensus $2.50 reflects analyst skepticism. Credibility discount warranted after July 2025 withdrawal.

Analyst skepticismCredibility discountBelow 50%

sonnetRun 2

50%

True coin-flip. Arguments balanced. ACA contraction helps but adverse selection could offset.

Balanced argumentsCoin-flipHigh uncertainty

sonnetRun 3

43%

All segments must improve simultaneously with 3 different headwinds. Joint probability below 50%.

All segments must improveThree headwindsJoint probability low

haikuRun 1

45%

44% growth needed from impaired management. Near coin-flip.

44% growthImpaired credibility

haikuRun 2

48%

Clear improvement drivers exist but execution risk high.

Drivers existExecution risk

haikuRun 3

42%

Base case slightly below $3.00. Multiple headwinds could offset drivers.

Below target base caseHeadwinds material

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Centene's FY2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS (as reported in the FY2026 earnings release, expected February 2027) is $3.00 or above. Resolves NO if below $3.00. Uses Centene's definition of adjusted diluted EPS as reported.

Resolution Source

Centene FY2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $3.00 — credibility test after FY2025 miss

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

View CNC Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis