Will Salesforce's customer attrition rate exceed 10% in any two consecutive quarters by Q2 FY2027?

Q4 FY2026 confirms attrition stable at ~8% for the 5th consecutive quarter — the longest unbroken streak of stability on record. Revenue acceleration to 12% (from ~9-10% prior quarters) is directionally opposite to the environment that produces attrition spikes. Total RPO surging to $72B (+14% YoY) represents massive forward customer commitment — this metric had been declining and just reversed sharply. For YES resolution, attrition must jump 25%+ from this rock-solid baseline AND sustain across two consecutive quarters, all within ~7 months. The combination of 5 consecutive stable quarters, accelerating revenue, surging RPO, and deepening switching costs via ILAs (120+) and AgentForce (22K customers) makes this scenario less plausible than at the prior assessment.

The prior assessment at 6% was already highly confident in NO. Q4 FY2026 data uniformly strengthens that conviction: attrition stable for 5th quarter, revenue acceleration, RPO surge, best-ever large deal quarter (12 deals >$10M, 1 >$50M). The NRR blind spot remains — Salesforce still does not disclose net retention — but with attrition holding at 8% while revenue and bookings accelerate, it is difficult to construct a scenario where hidden NRR deterioration suddenly manifests as 10%+ headline attrition. ILAs (120+ sold) represent a new structural barrier to churn not present in prior quarters — these are essentially multi-year all-in commitments. I maintain slightly higher than the tightest estimates to account for residual tail risk from unforeseen events.

Steel-manning YES: a sudden macro shock, major data breach, or catastrophic AgentForce failure could theoretically trigger rapid customer departures. Microsoft Dynamics continues growing faster (though no new competitive data this quarter). However, even in these black swan scenarios, enterprise CRM migrations take 12-18 months — customers physically cannot rip out 6+ integrated Salesforce clouds within the 7-month resolution window. The 5th consecutive stable quarter further extends the baseline of predictability. AE capacity growth of 15-17% means Salesforce is proactively investing in customer relationships, which is a leading indicator of retention health. The probability is marginally lower than prior but I anchor slightly higher than minimum to account for unknowable risks.

This is an emphatic NO. Every data point from Q4 FY2026 moves in the opposite direction of what would be needed for YES resolution. Attrition stable at 8% for 5 quarters straight. Revenue accelerated to 12%. RPO surged to $72B. cRPO at $35.1B (+16%). Best Q4 ever for large deals. ILAs at 120+ lock customers into multi-year commitments. AgentForce at 22K customers adds an entirely new product dimension for retention. The resolution window is now ~7 months. For attrition to exceed 10% in two consecutive quarters from this baseline would require a catastrophic, unprecedented event — and even then, the switching costs would prevent the speed of departure needed.

The resolution criteria has an inherently high bar: requires either specific disclosure of >10% attrition in two consecutive quarters, or management explicitly stating attrition 'increased materially.' Default is NO. With Q4 confirming the 5th stable quarter at ~8%, management actively guiding to subscription revenue acceleration (~12% FY27), and double-digit pipeline growth, there is no plausible path to management suddenly flagging material attrition increases. The prior calibration data shows we were too bearish on CRM revenue growth (Brier 0.58) — this suggests our estimates here, if anything, should be pushed even lower. The structural switching costs plus the compressed timeline make YES resolution near-impossible.

With 5 consecutive quarters of stable 8% attrition, we now have strong statistical confidence in the baseline. The coefficient of variation around attrition is effectively zero across the observed period. Revenue acceleration to 12% and RPO surging to $72B (+14%) are lagging and forward indicators, respectively, that both confirm customer health. The ILA structure (120+ sold) is particularly significant — these are essentially enterprise-wide commitments that contractually lock customers in. Combined with AgentForce adoption at 22K customers, the moat has materially deepened since the prior assessment. Even giving generous weight to tail risks (unforeseen security incident, aggressive Microsoft displacement campaign, macro shock), the probability is 3%.

Attrition at 8% for 5 consecutive quarters. Revenue accelerated to 12%. RPO surged to $72B (+14%). cRPO at $35.1B (+16%). ILAs (120+) and AgentForce (22K customers) deepen switching costs. Resolution needs 10%+ for 2 consecutive quarters within ~7 months. Essentially impossible given the structural barriers and the fact that every new data point moves away from the threshold.

Clear NO. The attrition threshold of 10% for two consecutive quarters is a 25% sustained increase from a 5-quarter stable baseline. Revenue grew 12%, RPO surged 14%, and cRPO grew 16% — all indicators of customer commitment strengthening. ILAs and AgentForce add two new retention mechanisms. The resolution window is compressing. Only a truly unprecedented catastrophic event could trigger this, and even then, the multi-cloud switching costs (6 clouds per deal) would prevent the speed of departure needed.

All indicators point to NO. 8% attrition stable for 5 quarters. Revenue growth accelerated to 12%. Best Q4 ever with 12 deals >$10M. RPO at $72B with 14% growth shows massive forward commitment. AE capacity growing 15-17% means Salesforce investing in customer retention. Previous 6% was already highly confident — new data only strengthens the case.