Will Salesforce's current RPO (cRPO) growth exceed 11% YoY in Q4 FY2026?

cRPO growth has been remarkably stable at 10-11% CC for four quarters. The Q4 FY25 base ($26.4B at 9% growth) is the easiest compare of the year. Pipeline commentary is 'very healthy double digit growth' and net new AOV growth outpaced AOV growth for the first time since FY22, both supporting continued momentum. Management has consistently beaten guidance by 200bps. However, total RPO declining from $63.4B to $60B creates tension -- shorter contract durations may inflate cRPO mechanically. The favorable base effect combined with strong large-deal momentum (+26% YoY) tilts probability moderately toward exceeding the 11% threshold.

The reported cRPO growth rates (9%, 12%, 11%, 11%) show Q4 FY25 was the weakest quarter, creating a favorable YoY comparison. FX was a 2pp headwind in Q4 FY25 (9% reported vs 11% CC) but was neutral by Q3 FY26 (11% = 11% CC). If FX remains neutral or favorable, the reported rate could match or exceed the CC rate. The committee's unresolved debate about total RPO decline is critical -- if contract shortening is driving cRPO growth, the 11% level may represent a mathematical ceiling rather than genuine demand acceleration. The underlying momentum indicators (pipeline, large deals) are positive but the total RPO divergence limits confidence.

Arithmetically: Q4 FY25 cRPO ~$26.4B; exceeding 11% requires Q4 FY26 cRPO above ~$29.3B. Q3 FY26 cRPO was $29.4B. Maintaining Q3 levels in absolute terms would satisfy the threshold given the favorable base. The committee established that net new AOV outpacing AOV growth for the first time since FY22 signals improving deal economics. However, cRPO in CC has been 11%, 11%, 10%, 11% -- dead flat at this level -- meaning genuine acceleration above 11% requires a step-change rather than continuation. AgentForce contributions and large-deal pipeline could provide incremental push, but total RPO decline suggests the aggregate commitment pool is not expanding.

Two structural factors favor exceeding 11%: (1) the Q4 FY25 base is the easiest comparison of the year at only 9% reported growth, and (2) management has sandbagged cRPO guidance consistently, guiding 9% for Q3 and delivering 11%. Large-deal bookings growing 26% YoY and 'double digit pipeline growth above expectations' provide the most concrete forward indicators. The total RPO decline is a legitimate concern but may reflect strategic contract restructuring (shorter, more frequent renewals) rather than demand weakness. The Moat Mapper's DEFENSIBLE classification with wide switching costs (6 clouds per top-100 deal) supports retention-driven cRPO stability.

The arithmetic is the most compelling argument: Q4 FY25 cRPO ~$26.4B means exceeding 11% requires >$29.3B. Q3 FY26 cRPO was $29.4B. If cRPO simply holds flat sequentially, the YoY growth rate exceeds 11%. However, cRPO can decline sequentially (e.g., Q2 FY26 showed 10% CC, a dip from Q1's 11%). The NRR non-disclosure is the largest blind spot -- without knowing retention dynamics, we can't assess whether cRPO growth is driven by expansion vs. new business. Salesforce trailing market growth (9.5% vs. 12.8%) suggests competitive share erosion, which could constrain the cRPO upside. Slight lean toward YES given mechanical favorability of the base.

The critical nuance is 'exceed' -- strictly above 11.0%. With cRPO growth running at precisely 11% CC for three of the last four quarters, the outcome is genuinely uncertain. The question reduces to whether any marginal factor tips the number above the threshold. Favorable: base effect, large-deal momentum, pipeline strength, AgentForce ramp. Unfavorable: total RPO decline, Microsoft growing 2.4x faster, trailing market growth. The committee's unresolved debate about cRPO vs. total RPO divergence adds uncertainty -- if contract shortening is the driver, cRPO growth may be at a structural ceiling. The probability is near 50% with a slight positive tilt from favorable base mathematics.

The easiest base comparison of the year (Q4 FY25 at 9% growth) combined with strong pipeline commentary and management's consistent 200bps beat pattern favor exceeding 11%. Large-deal bookings growing 26% YoY and net new AOV outpacing AOV growth for first time since FY22 provide concrete support. The total RPO decline is a concern but may not directly impair near-term cRPO.

cRPO growth has plateaued at 10-11% CC for four consecutive quarters. Total RPO declining from $63.4B to $60B undermines the cRPO acceleration narrative. Microsoft Dynamics growing 2.4x faster signals competitive pressure. The question asks for strictly exceeding 11% when the current run rate is 11% -- essentially a coin flip. Favorable base helps but is offset by structural headwinds.

Strong pipeline growth, favorable base effect, and consistent management beat pattern tilt the balance slightly toward YES. The combination of large-deal momentum and net new AOV outpacing AOV growth provides concrete evidence of improving deal quality. Total RPO decline is a legitimate concern but may reflect shorter contract terms rather than demand weakness. Slight lean toward exceeding 11%.