Will ValueAct Capital exit the Salesforce board or reduce its position by more than 50% by August 2026?

Q4 FY2026 earnings materially strengthen the 'mission accomplished' narrative. The $50B buyback authorization is the capstone of ValueAct's capital return thesis -- this is the single most activist-aligned action Salesforce has taken and arguably completes what ValueAct set out to achieve. Margins at 34.1% with 34.3% FY27 guidance represent a near-doubling from ~22% pre-activist. Informatica outperforming removes a key reason for continued oversight (ensuring the deal creates value). Revenue re-accelerating at 12% Q4 shows the company can grow while maintaining discipline. The spring 2026 proxy is now ~2-3 months away, compressing the timeline for any exit decision. Against all this, the stock being down 49% from ATH creates a genuine counterweight -- ValueAct may want to stay to advocate for further re-rating, or may view current levels as unrelated to operational performance (AI sentiment rotation) and thus not their fight.

The dual-pathway resolution structure (board exit OR >50% position reduction) combined with strengthened mission-accomplished evidence pushes the probability modestly higher from the previous 25% base. The key insight from Q4 earnings is that every pillar of the activist thesis has now been validated: margin expansion (34.1%), M&A discipline (Informatica at 5x, now outperforming), and capital returns ($50B authorization exceeding all prior programs). When an activist's thesis is this fully realized, the historical base rate for exit within 6 months rises substantially. However, the 49% stock decline from ATH is an unusual confound -- most activist exits occur when the stock has appreciated (capturing gains), not when it has declined significantly. ValueAct may perceive an incomplete value realization story, which could delay exit. The proxy filing expected in the next 2-3 months will be the definitive signal.

Incrementally updating from the previous 25% base given Q4 earnings. The new data strengthens the exit case (thesis realized, $50B buyback, Informatica working) but doesn't provide any direct evidence of exit activity (no 13D/A filings, no board departure announcements). The earnings call itself contained no governance-specific signals -- no management commentary about board composition changes or activist engagement. The key question remains whether operational thesis completion translates to imminent exit when the stock has significantly underperformed. ValueAct's collaborative, longer-duration model suggests they may stay to see the stock re-rate rather than exit at what could be perceived as a trough. The $50B buyback auth, while a capstone, also gives ValueAct confidence that capital allocation discipline is embedded and self-sustaining -- which could cut either way (reason to leave if it's self-sustaining, or reason to stay to ensure execution).

Q4 FY2026 delivers the strongest 'mission accomplished' quarter yet for the ValueAct thesis at Salesforce. The $50B buyback authorization is transformative -- it signals that capital return discipline is now embedded in Salesforce's DNA, not dependent on activist board presence. Informatica outperforming expectations validates the post-activist M&A framework. Revenue re-accelerating at 12% while maintaining 34.1% margins proves the bear case wrong (that margin expansion would kill growth). Best Q4 ever for bookings further cements the operational turnaround. The annual meeting proxy is approximately 2-3 months away, and this is where board composition decisions become visible. I'm shifting probability upward from 25% because the thesis completion evidence is now overwhelming, even though the stock decline creates an argument for staying. The stock decline appears driven by AI sentiment rotation and macro factors, not operational shortcomings that an activist could fix -- ValueAct's toolkit is less relevant to a multiple compression problem.

While the mission-accomplished narrative has strengthened with Q4 earnings, I weight the absence of any concrete exit evidence heavily. No 13D/A filings, no news of planned board departures, no management commentary about board changes. The earnings release is an operational document -- it doesn't contain governance signals. The real information will come from the proxy filing. The $50B buyback, while impressive, could actually motivate ValueAct to stay and oversee execution of such a massive program. Additionally, the stock being down 49% from ATH means ValueAct's position is likely significantly underwater relative to peak paper gains -- activists are less likely to exit when the optics suggest 'selling at the bottom.' The Informatica outperformance is positive but the integration is still in early stages. I'm only marginally adjusting from the previous 25% because the new data, while directionally supportive of exit, doesn't change the fundamental calculus that no exit signals exist.

The tension in this market has sharpened with Q4 earnings. On one hand, the activist thesis is now as fully realized as it could be -- every objective has been met or exceeded. On the other hand, the stock is at a multi-year low relative to ATH, which creates unusual incentive dynamics. The calibration data from resolved sibling markets shows we were previously too bearish on CRM metrics (revenue growth, cRPO growth) -- the company is outperforming across the board. This operational outperformance paradoxically increases exit probability because it demonstrates the company doesn't need activist oversight to execute. The spring 2026 proxy remains the pivotal event. If ValueAct's representative is listed on the slate, the exit probability drops dramatically for this resolution window. If absent, it resolves YES almost immediately. The 6-month window to August 2026 is now only ~5 months, further compressing the timeline.

Activist thesis now fully realized: margins 34.1%, M&A discipline proven with Informatica at 5x and outperforming, $50B buyback auth. Q4 revenue at 12% growth shows growth acceleration alongside margin expansion. The $50B buyback is the strongest mission-accomplished signal. Stock down 49% creates exit hesitancy but this decline is macro-driven, not operational. Spring proxy 2-3 months away. Modestly higher than previous 25% given strengthened thesis completion evidence.

No new governance data in Q4 earnings. The earnings release is operational, not governance-focused. No 13D/A filings, no board changes announced. ValueAct's longer-duration collaborative model makes them stickier than typical activists. Stock down 49% means poor exit optics. Even if thesis is complete, the timing of exit is uncertain. Only marginal update from previous 25% -- the new data confirms thesis completion but provides zero evidence of actual exit activity.

Updating modestly from 25% base. $50B buyback auth and Informatica outperformance strengthen mission-accomplished case. But the resolution question is about exit BY August 2026, not eventually. Only ~5 months remain. The proxy filing (2-3 months) will be definitive. No current filing evidence of position reduction. The stock decline adds complexity -- ValueAct may want to stay to fight for re-rating. Dual-pathway (board exit or >50% reduction) helps but both require visible actions that haven't started.