Will Salesforce disclose AgentForce ARR at or above $1.5B by Q1 FY2027 earnings (June 2026)?

The math is the dominant signal here. $800M to $1.5B requires 87.5% QoQ growth — nearly double the 48% rate achieved in Q4 FY26, which was itself the strongest quarter in AgentForce history. At the Q4 growth rate, Q1 would reach approximately $1.18B, roughly $320M short of the target. The predecessor market ($1B) resolved NO at $800M, and our 23% estimate was well-calibrated. The $1.5B threshold is dramatically more ambitious. ILA momentum (120+ sold) is the strongest bull case — if ILA deal sizes are substantially larger than current average ARR per customer ($35K), large-enterprise ILAs could theoretically drive step-function increases. However, the declining average ARR per customer (from $57K to $35K) suggests the customer mix is shifting toward smaller deals, not larger ones. Q1 is also seasonally weaker than Q4 in enterprise software. For $1.5B to hit, something fundamentally different would need to happen — a mega-deal, a definitional change, or a completely different growth regime. Possible but unlikely.

Calibration from the predecessor market is critical. We estimated 23% for $1B and it resolved NO at $800M — meaning even our bearish assessment was slightly too generous (though well-calibrated overall). Now we need to assess $1.5B, which is 87.5% above the actual outcome. The growth trajectory is impressive — 48% QoQ, 169% YoY — but these are rates, not absolute dollar amounts. Adding $700M in a single quarter ($800M to $1.5B) would be roughly 2.7x the $260M added in Q4 ($540M to $800M). The ILA pipeline is the wildcard: 120+ ILAs sold in Q4, and if Q1 sees 150+ ILAs with larger average contract values, the incremental ARR could be substantial. However, only 4K of 22K customers are in production — the deployment gap suggests many new customers are still ramping, which means ARR recognition may lag booking activity. Premium SKU bookings tripling is encouraging but conversion from bookings to recognized ARR takes time. I give this slightly higher than my base case because the ILA pipeline creates genuine optionality, but the core math is unforgiving.

I approach this with strong conviction that the probability is low. The fundamental constraint is arithmetic: Salesforce needs to add $700M of incremental ARR in Q1 FY27, versus $260M added in Q4 FY26. That is a 2.7x acceleration in absolute dollar terms, in what is seasonally the weakest quarter. The Q4 growth rate of 48% QoQ, if sustained, produces ~$1.18B — that is the gravity center of the estimate. For $1.5B, Salesforce would need growth acceleration to a rate never before achieved. The ILA and premium SKU momentum, while real, are incremental — they explain sustaining high growth, not doubling it. The declining average deal size ($57K to $35K) confirms this is a volume story, not a deal-size-expansion story. Volume can grow steadily but rarely produces the kind of step-function needed here. The only realistic YES scenario involves either: (1) a massive enterprise deal that single-handedly adds hundreds of millions in ARR, or (2) Salesforce redefining the metric to include more revenue streams. Both are low probability.

The Q4 FY26 earnings provide a clear data point: $800M at 48% QoQ growth. Extrapolating this rate gives ~$1.18B in Q1, well below $1.5B. To hit $1.5B, growth would need to accelerate to 87.5% QoQ — a rate never achieved in AgentForce's history, even during the initial launch quarters when growth rates are typically highest. The bull case centers on ILAs: 120+ sold in Q4 (exceeding 50-100 expectations), now the #1 product. If ILA momentum accelerates further and average ILA deal sizes are large ($500K+ ARR), the math could work: 200+ ILAs at $500K average would add $100M+ in ARR on top of the base growth. But 200+ ILAs at $500K+ is aggressive — the overall average customer ARR is declining, not increasing. The premium SKU tripling is positive but unlikely to close the $320M gap between trend-line growth and target. I assign a slightly higher probability than base-rate math would suggest because Salesforce has surprised to the upside before (ILAs exceeded guidance by 2x in Q4), but the gap is very large.

The calibration signal from the predecessor market is the most informative prior. At 23% for the $1B threshold, the ensemble correctly assessed growth would fall short (actual: $800M, 20% below target). Now we need to assess $1.5B, which is 87.5% above the actual Q4 outcome — a dramatically larger gap than the $1B market posed. Applying the calibration lesson: if 23% was right for a 25% growth target ($800M to $1B), then a 87.5% growth target should be substantially lower. The key question is whether the growth rate itself is accelerating. Q3 to Q4 was 48% QoQ. Q2 to Q3 growth was approximately 44% (estimated from the trajectory). So there is some acceleration, but it is modest — 4 percentage points, not the 40 percentage points needed. Multiple growth vectors (ILAs, premium SKUs, Flex Credits) are firing simultaneously, but they were also firing in Q4 and produced 48%, not 88%. The production deployment gap (4K vs. 22K) also suggests much of the new customer base is not yet generating full ARR.

I weight three factors in this assessment. First, the arithmetic: $1.5B from $800M requires near-doubling, which is the strongest bearish signal. The Q4 growth rate of 48% was excellent but produces only $1.18B — a 21% miss on the $1.5B target. Second, the ILA wild card: ILAs exceeded Q4 expectations by 2x (120+ vs. 50-100 expected). If this pattern repeats — if Salesforce sells 250+ ILAs in Q1 with large average contract values — it could close the gap. Enterprise ILAs for Fortune 500 companies could carry $1M+ ARR. But we have no evidence that ILA deal sizes are at this level; the declining average customer ARR suggests otherwise. Third, the seasonal factor: Q4 is typically Salesforce's strongest quarter for new bookings (fiscal year-end push). Q1 bookings tend to be 15-25% lower. This headwind compounds the already-demanding math. Overall, I assign modest upside optionality from ILA acceleration but anchor heavily on the arithmetic gap.

AgentForce at $800M needs 87.5% growth to reach $1.5B. The best quarter ever (Q4) achieved 48% growth. At that rate, Q1 reaches approximately $1.18B — well short. The gap is $320M, which is larger than the total Q4 increment of $260M. Several upside factors exist: ILAs as #1 product (120+ sold, exceeded expectations), premium SKU bookings tripled, three monetization paths validated. But the math is demanding and Q1 seasonality works against it. The predecessor market for $1B resolved NO with our well-calibrated 23% estimate. I give this slightly more than the pure math would suggest (which points to 5-7%) because the ILA momentum is genuinely surprising and could produce outsized outcomes, but still well under 20%.

Simple math dominates. Q4 added $260M in ARR. To reach $1.5B, Q1 needs to add $700M — 2.7x what Q4 achieved. There is no evidence in the earnings data suggesting this kind of acceleration is plausible. Paid customers doubled but average ARR per customer declined. ILAs are growing but total ILA count (120+) at even $100K average adds only $12M. Premium SKUs tripled but from an unstated base. The production deployment gap (only 4K of 22K in production) suggests many customers are in early implementation, not yet generating expansion revenue. Q1 seasonal softness further reduces the probability. I assign 9% to account for extreme tail scenarios (massive definition change, unexpected mega-deal) but see this as a very low probability outcome.

The calibration from the $1B predecessor market is the strongest analytical anchor. At 23% probability for $1B, we were well-calibrated (Brier 0.05). The $1.5B target is substantially more ambitious — requiring 87.5% QoQ growth versus the 25% QoQ growth that $1B would have needed from Q3's $800M base. Wait — correction: $1B from $540M in Q3 required 85% QoQ, and from $800M in Q4 the $1.5B target also requires 87.5%. But the key difference is the absolute dollar amount: $700M incremental vs. $260M delivered. Even if we assume growth rate stays at 48%, we get $1.18B. For an upside scenario at 60% QoQ growth (optimistic acceleration), we get $1.28B — still short. To reach $1.5B would require approximately 87.5% QoQ growth. This is a tail scenario. I assign 12% primarily for the possibility that ILA deal sizes surprise dramatically upward or that Salesforce adjusts how it measures AgentForce ARR.