Will Salesforce report Q1 FY2027 organic revenue growth above 10% constant currency (excluding Informatica contribution)?

The arithmetic here is fairly straightforward and unfavorable for YES. Q1 FY27 is guided at 10-11% CC reported. Management has confirmed Informatica contributes approximately 2-3 percentage points. That gives an organic CC range of ~7-9%, with the midpoint at ~8%. For organic growth to exceed 10%, Salesforce would need to beat the TOP of their guided CC range by at least 1-2 percentage points AND have Informatica contribute at the low end (~2pp). This is a compound event requiring two things to go right simultaneously. The best leading indicator — organic cRPO at ~9% CC — caps near-term revenue acceleration. cRPO translates to revenue with a 1-2 quarter lag, making it highly unlikely organic revenue suddenly jumps 1+ points above organic cRPO growth. However, the calibration lesson from the Q4 market (ensemble was too bearish at 24% vs. YES outcome) warrants some upward adjustment. That Q4 result included Informatica though, so the direct lesson is limited. I assign ~18% probability, acknowledging the mathematical path exists but is narrow.

I weight three considerations. First, the guidance-implied organic range of ~7-9% CC is the strongest anchor — management sets guidance conservatively, but not 3+ points conservatively. They'd need to beat the top of CC guidance by ~2pp organically. Second, the predecessor market calibration matters but with caveats: we were too bearish at 24% on Q4 revenue >10%, but that included Informatica. The organic question strips away the acquisition tailwind. Still, the lesson is that CRM execution surprised to the upside, and I should not anchor too low. Third, there are genuine upside catalysts: AgentForce ILA momentum is real (120+ in Q4, #1 product), AE capacity is up 15-17%, pipeline is in double-digit growth, and 12 deals >$10M in Q4 suggests large deal momentum. If AgentForce monetization accelerates faster than expected — converting pipeline to bookings at a higher rate — it could pull organic growth above the cRPO-implied trajectory. The path to YES exists through AgentForce outperformance, but requires exceptional execution beyond what guidance implies.

I approach this from the cRPO leading indicator perspective. Organic cRPO grew ~9% CC in Q4 FY26, confirmed by Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss (who identified ~4pp Informatica contribution to reported cRPO). cRPO is the single best predictor of near-term subscription revenue because it represents contracted but not yet recognized revenue. For organic revenue to exceed 10% CC in Q1, organic cRPO growth would likely need to have been 11%+ in Q4 — but it was 9%. The math simply doesn't support it without a dramatic one-quarter acceleration in non-contracted revenue (professional services, usage-based) that offsets the subscription trajectory. Milano's own framing is critical: he committed to organic re-acceleration in H2 FY27, not Q1. This is the CEO telling you where the inflection is expected. Taking him at his word, Q1 is the building period, not the breakout quarter. The M&C and Tableau weakness continues as a drag. I see a 15% path through exceptional AgentForce pull-through, but the central expectation is firmly NO.

The fundamental challenge for YES is that management's own guidance implies organic growth below the threshold. Q1 guided at 10-11% CC reported, with Informatica contributing ~2-3pp, means organic CC growth of roughly 7-9%. Even if Salesforce beats the high end of CC guidance (11%) and Informatica only contributes 2pp (the low end), organic growth would be ~9% — still below 10%. You'd need either: (a) a significant CC guidance beat beyond 11%, or (b) Informatica contributing less than 2pp (unlikely given it was a full-quarter contribution in Q4 and Q1 is the first full quarter). The organic cRPO growth of ~9% CC strongly corroborates the ~7-9% organic revenue range. However, I assign 20% rather than single digits because: (1) the Q4 calibration miss warns against excessive bearishness on CRM, (2) AgentForce bookings momentum could surprise with faster revenue recognition from ILAs, and (3) large deal timing can create quarterly volatility that pushes above trend.

I deliberately weight the upside scenario more heavily, informed by the calibration lesson. The ensemble predicted only 24% on Q4 revenue >10% CC, and it resolved YES. While that included Informatica, the lesson is that we systematically underweight CRM's execution capacity. Several upside vectors are in play: (1) AgentForce is growing faster than any Salesforce product in history — the 120+ ILAs, bookings doubling expectations, and becoming the #1 product suggest revenue contribution could surprise; (2) AE capacity grew 15-17% from near-zero, meaning Q1 has materially more selling capacity than any quarter in FY26; (3) net new AOV outpacing AOV in H2 FY26 is a mathematical precondition for acceleration; (4) 12 deals >$10M in Q4 and double-digit pipeline growth suggest large deal momentum. Against this: the cRPO organic indicator at ~9% is powerful, and Milano's H2 FY27 framing is explicit. But cRPO captures contracted revenue, not the potential for accelerating new bookings that convert to revenue within the quarter. I lean toward NO but with meaningful upside tail at 25%.

I focus on the resolution mechanics. The question asks about organic CC growth exceeding 10%, with Informatica contribution estimated from management commentary or analyst consensus. This introduces measurement uncertainty — if Informatica's contribution is harder to isolate than expected, the resolution could hinge on estimation methodology. However, Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss already established the ~4pp framework for cRPO, and analysts will apply similar decomposition to revenue. The core problem remains: guided revenue growth of 10-11% CC minus 2-3pp Informatica = 7-9% organic. For YES, Salesforce would need to report ~13% CC (to net 10%+ after 3pp Informatica) — that's 2+ points above the high end of their CC guidance. CRM has beaten revenue guidance, but typically by 1-2%, not 2+ percentage points on CC growth. The double-digit pipeline and AE capacity growth are real positives, but they're being invested in by management for H2 FY27 organic acceleration, not Q1. Setting at 17%.

Q1 FY27 guidance of 10-11% CC reported includes ~2-3pp from Informatica, leaving organic CC growth at ~7-9%. The organic cRPO growth of ~9% CC confirms this range. Milano committed to organic acceleration in H2 FY27, not Q1. The math is difficult for YES. However, AgentForce momentum (120+ ILAs, #1 product), AE capacity growth of 15-17%, and double-digit pipeline growth create a nonzero upside path. The Q4 calibration miss (24% predicted vs. YES outcome) suggests adjusting upward from extreme bearishness, even though Q4 included Informatica. I set 20% to account for possible AgentForce upside surprise and large deal timing.

The data is clear: organic cRPO growth was ~9% CC, guidance implies 7-9% organic CC revenue growth, and the CEO has explicitly directed investor expectations toward H2 FY27 for organic re-acceleration. For YES to happen, organic revenue would need to grow 10%+ CC, which means beating the top end of reported CC guidance AND having Informatica contribute at the low end of its range. This is a low-probability compound event. The M&C and Tableau weakness continues to drag on overall growth. While AgentForce is a genuine bright spot, its contribution is already embedded in the guidance — management knows about the 120+ ILAs and double-digit pipeline when they set Q1 guidance. Setting at 14%.

I weigh the calibration lesson more heavily than other bearish models. The Q4 ensemble was at 24% and the result was YES. While Q4 included Informatica, the consistent pattern is that Salesforce finds ways to exceed expectations. The net new AOV outpacing AOV in H2 FY26 is a mathematical inflection signal — it means the marginal growth rate is above the average growth rate, which is how acceleration begins. If this inflection is stronger than expected, Q1 organic could surprise. AgentForce ILAs converting faster than the cRPO trajectory implies, plus the 15-17% AE capacity growth, creates a path. Still, the guidance math (7-9% organic CC) and cRPO indicator (~9% CC) are the strongest anchors. The path to YES requires multiple favorable developments. Setting at 22% — above the most bearish estimates but still firmly below 50%.