Will Salesforce disclose AgentForce ARR at or above $1B by Q4 FY2026 earnings?

The math is demanding -- $540M to $1B requires near-doubling in one quarter. However, the AELA pipeline (~100 deals) could dramatically increase deal sizes since enterprise-wide licenses are likely multiples of the $57K average. The consumption flywheel inflection (3 to 362 refills) suggests usage is scaling exponentially. Management has strong incentive to disclose a $1B milestone. The pricing definition ambiguity (whether AELAs count as AgentForce ARR) could help reach $1B through favorable accounting. But $460M incremental in one quarter remains extraordinary even with these accelerants.

YoY growth of 330% from a ~$125M base is misleading for predicting sequential growth. The strongest bull case is AELAs: 16 signed, 100 in pipeline. If 40-60 AELAs close at $2M average, that adds $80-120M. Combined with organic consumption growth and deal expansion, total incremental ARR of $200-$300M is plausible, bringing ARR to $740-$840M -- still short of $1B. Getting to $1B requires everything to go right AND favorable ARR definition treatment. CRPO deceleration across the broader business is a headwind.

Management has disclosed AgentForce ARR in prior quarters ($540M in Q3) and would likely continue if the number is impressive. The resolution criteria resolve NO if no figure is provided, creating floor risk. Q4 is typically Salesforce's strongest quarter for enterprise closes, which helps the AELA conversion. The AELA program is the most plausible mechanism for a large ARR jump, but only 16 have signed vs 100 in pipeline, and pipeline conversion is uncertain. The committee's concern about pricing instability affecting ARR comparability is well-founded -- ARR growth could be inflated by bundling shifts.

The math doesn't work in most scenarios. $540M to $1B requires +$460M incremental, which is almost as much ARR as the entire existing AgentForce base. Even with aggressive AELA closings, typical enterprise software doesn't near-double in a single quarter. The 362 consumption refills are impressive but don't translate to the hundreds of millions in incremental ARR needed. Management will likely report strong growth ($700-$800M) and frame it positively without hitting $1B. The ongoing pricing iteration works against the bull case -- if they're still finding PMF, deal sizes may compress rather than expand.

Q4 is Salesforce's biggest quarter historically. AELAs at ~100 in pipeline represent a completely new deal structure that could dramatically change the math -- if 30%+ converts at multi-million dollar values, incremental ARR could be substantial. The consumption vs subscription ARR debate matters enormously: if management counts AELA revenue as AgentForce ARR (which they have incentive to do), the $1B threshold becomes more attainable. Salesforce's operational execution track record (Atomic Auditor: EXCEEDING) means they tend to hit milestones. Management has been narratively building toward this moment.

Focusing on what 'ARR' means: pricing changed 3+ times and AELAs represent a shift to enterprise-wide bundling. If management defines AgentForce ARR broadly (including AELA bundles, adjacent AI revenue), they could potentially claim $1B. However, the committee tracked $540M as the specific disclosed metric. With 70% QoQ customer growth extrapolated, ~16,000 paid customers at $57K average = ~$912M. Close but not quite $1B, and customer growth doesn't compound perfectly. Base case is $700-$850M ARR with meaningful probability of falling short of $1B.

$540M to $1B requires 85% sequential growth in one quarter. The AELA pipeline (100 deals) is the only mechanism that could bridge this gap, but pipeline is not revenue. The consumption flywheel (362 refills) shows momentum but not at the scale needed for $460M incremental ARR. Base case is $700-$850M ARR.

Strong Q4 seasonality, AELA acceleration, and management's incentive to hit a round-number milestone all push probability up. But the math gap ($460M incremental) is too large for most realistic scenarios. Even with favorable AELA accounting treatment, hitting $1B requires near-perfect execution on a brand-new deal structure with only 16 prior closings. Management may also choose not to disclose specific ARR if it falls short.

The key question is whether AELAs fundamentally change the deal size math. If AELAs average $2-5M (vs $57K standard), then 100+ closings could bridge the gap. But only 16 have signed and 'in pipeline' is speculative. The ARR definition ambiguity gives management some flexibility to claim the milestone, but the base case math from known metrics doesn't support $1B. Most likely outcome is strong growth to $700-$850M range.