Will Salesforce report Q4 FY2026 revenue growth of 10% or higher (constant currency)?

Revenue growth has been stuck at 8-10% for 7 consecutive quarters, most recently 8% CC in Q3 FY26. To hit 10% CC, Salesforce would need a 2pp jump in a single quarter -- something it hasn't achieved in the entire 7-quarter band. cRPO acceleration from 9% to 11% CC and the net new AOV inflection suggest pipeline strengthening, but the typical lag from cRPO to revenue is 1-2 quarters, making the timing uncertain. Management guides conservatively (midpoint $10.0B implies ~7.6% nominal), and historical beats run 1-1.5% above guidance. Even a strong beat to $10.15-10.20B yields ~9.3-9.8% nominal, or roughly 8-9% CC given the consistent 1-2pp CC-to-nominal gap.

The leading indicators present the strongest bull case: cRPO at $29.4B growing 11% CC (up from 9%), net new bookings from $1M+ deals growing 26% YoY, and net new AOV growth outpacing AOV growth for the first time since FY22. These metrics have been accelerating for 2-3 quarters. The typical cRPO-to-revenue lag of 1-2 quarters means Q4 FY26 could be the inflection point. However, even hitting ~11% nominal growth (which would represent a meaningful acceleration) only translates to ~9-10% CC given persistent FX headwinds of 1-2pp. The bar is high and the math is tight.

The guidance math is unfavorable. Q4 FY26 guidance of $9.90-10.10B (midpoint $10.0B) implies 7.6% nominal growth on the $9.29B base. To achieve 10% CC, assuming CC lags nominal by ~1pp, Salesforce needs ~11% nominal growth, or ~$10.31B in revenue. That's $310M above guidance midpoint -- a 3.1% beat. Salesforce's typical revenue beat has been ~$100-150M (1-1.5%). A $310M beat would be more than double the historical pattern. Even the Atomic Auditor's finding that management systematically beats guidance doesn't support a beat of this magnitude. The structural drags from Marketing & Commerce clouds further constrain upside.

Seven consecutive quarters in the 8-10% band with no breakout. Q3 FY26 was 8% CC -- the lower end of the range. The committee is unanimous that the 10% CC threshold has not been breached and represents a structural ceiling given Marketing & Commerce cloud drag. Leading indicators (cRPO, AOV inflection, large-deal bookings) are genuinely improving but have a documented lag to revenue translation. Management's own guidance implies well below 10% CC. The reacceleration timeline remains uncertain per the committee's unresolved debate.

The Atomic Auditor's finding of OPERATIONAL_EXECUTION = EXCEEDING at E3 means management consistently beats guided targets. But the magnitude of beat needed is the issue. Typical revenue beats of 1-1.5% get Salesforce to ~$10.15-10.20B, which is ~9.3-9.8% nominal or ~8-9% CC. To reach 10% CC requires an extraordinary beat -- roughly double the normal magnitude. The Salesforce below-market growth rate (9.5% vs. 12.8% CRM market per IDC) suggests the company is losing share even as it grows, indicating structural constraints on acceleration. AgentForce at 1.3% of revenue is immaterial to Q4 results.

The FX component introduces meaningful uncertainty. In Q3 FY26, the nominal-to-CC gap was 1pp (9% nominal, 8% CC). This gap has ranged from 1-2pp across recent quarters. If FX headwinds moderate to only 0.5pp in Q4, then 10.5% nominal growth (achievable with an above-average beat) could yield 10% CC. The organic FY26 guidance of $41.15-41.25B implies Q4 residual of ~$10.15-10.25B after $31.0B in Q1-Q3. The upper end (~$10.25B) is ~10.3% nominal, which with favorable FX could reach 9-10% CC. This is a narrow path but not impossible.

Most recent CC growth was 8%. Hitting 10% CC requires a 2pp jump that hasn't occurred in 7 quarters. Leading indicators positive but unproven in actual revenue. Guidance implies well below 10% CC. The structural ceiling from Marketing & Commerce drag is real.

cRPO accelerating from 9% to 11% CC is the strongest forward indicator. Large-deal bookings +26% YoY and net new AOV inflection support eventual acceleration. But the 10% CC bar requires these leading indicators to fully translate in this specific quarter, and the 1-2pp FX gap makes the threshold harder to reach. Guidance midpoint of $10.0B implies only ~7.6% nominal growth.

Full-year organic guidance of $41.15-41.25B implies Q4 residual of ~$10.15-10.25B given ~$31.0B in Q1-Q3. Upper end at $10.25B is ~10.3% nominal growth. With typical 1pp FX headwind, that's ~9.3% CC -- still below 10%. Would need above-guidance performance AND favorable FX to reach 10% CC. Management beats consistently but the magnitude needed is larger than typical.