Will CrowdStrike's net dollar retention rate fall below 108% in any reported quarter during FY2027 (February 2026 - January 2027)?

NRR is currently at 115% and recovering from a 112% trough — itself never breached 108% even during the worst post-outage fallout. A decline to below 108% would require a 7+ percentage point drop from current levels, which would be unprecedented for CrowdStrike outside of a catastrophic event. The expansion engine is accelerating with NNA at $265M (+73% YoY), module adoption increasing across all tiers (49% at 6+, 34% at 7+), and Falcon Flex driving >200 accounts to reflex upward. Post-CCP normalization is a headwind but CCP was only ~$80M ARR on a $4B+ base — insufficient to drive a 7pp NRR decline. The committee assessed REVENUE_DURABILITY as DURABLE with HIGH confidence.

The core question is whether post-CCP normalization could reverse the NRR recovery trajectory. The CCP converted upsell opportunities into fixed commitments, which may have artificially supported NRR during the recovery period. However, the unresolved debate has a clear resolution path: if CCP-driven (Moat Mapper view), NRR should hold or improve post-normalization. If structural (Myth Meter concern), NRR could stagnate but would need to decline 7pp from 115% — an extreme move. Falcon Flex complicates the picture as >200 accounts reflexing means expansion is being captured differently. Even if NRR stagnates at 115% due to Flex transition effects, it would remain well above 108%. The scenario requiring NRR below 108% would demand simultaneous CCP unwinding headwind, competitive loss, AND Flex masking a collapse — a conjunction of three low-probability events.

The committee's own monitoring trigger framework is instructive: the threshold is NRR below 108% for 2 consecutive post-CCP quarters, suggesting the committee itself views this as a tail risk worth monitoring but not a base case. Current NRR at 115% with gross retention at 97% creates a strong floor. The 97% GDR means the expansion engine only needs to generate 11pp of net expansion to stay above 108% — and current net expansion is running at ~18pp (115% NRR = 97% GDR + 18pp expansion). A decline from 18pp expansion to below 11pp would require a 39% reduction in expansion velocity, which contradicts the NNA acceleration trend ($194M -> $221M -> $265M). Management guiding FY2027 NNA growth of 'at least 20%' on a higher base further supports continued expansion. The NRR-below-108% scenario is possible only under severe competitive erosion or a second catastrophic operational failure.

NRR at 115% recovering from 112% trough gives a 7pp buffer above the 108% threshold. The expansion metrics are strong — NNA accelerating, module adoption rising, Falcon Flex driving upsell. But I weight the CCP contamination concern more heavily than other runs might. CCP concluded Q4 FY2025, and if the $80M ARR was concentrated in high-NRR customer cohorts, the unwinding could have an outsized per-customer effect not captured by the aggregate ARR number. The Myth Meter's concern that management leads with GDR (97%) rather than NRR (115%) suggests internal awareness that NRR trajectory is more vulnerable than headlines suggest. Still, a 7pp decline from current levels in a single year would be extreme — even the July 2024 catastrophic outage only produced an 8pp decline (120% to 112%) and that included the worst cybersecurity incident in history.

This is straightforward probability assessment. NRR is 115% and recovering. The 108% threshold requires a 7pp decline. The worst decline in CrowdStrike's history was the post-outage drop from ~120% to 112% (8pp over several quarters), triggered by the most significant cybersecurity operational failure in history. For NRR to breach 108% in FY2027 would require an event of similar or greater magnitude while the company is already in recovery mode. The structural supports are strong: 97% GDR, accelerating NNA, increasing module adoption, Falcon Flex driving expansion. The CCP concern is valid but $80M on a $4B+ base is 2% — not enough to drive a 7pp NRR move. Probability is in the high single digits.

I'm giving slightly more weight to the Falcon Flex transition risk than the consensus view. The committee notes that Flex captures expansion differently — >200 accounts reflexing but this may not appear in traditional NRR. If CrowdStrike accelerates the Flex transition in FY2027 (they have incentive — longer duration, higher total contract value), NRR as traditionally measured could degrade even while actual customer expansion is healthy. Combined with CCP normalization and the fading of favorable comps (Q3 FY2025 had depressed base), there is a plausible path where reported NRR dips toward 110-112% range. But below 108% still requires additional negative catalyst beyond metric transition effects. The Moat Mapper's view that NRR is contaminated by both CCP and Flex suggests the metric itself may become less meaningful, but the question asks about the reported number specifically.

NRR 115%, recovering from 112% trough. 97% GDR provides strong floor. NNA accelerating ($265M, +73% YoY). Module adoption increasing. Even during worst post-outage period, NRR only dropped to 112% — still 4pp above threshold. CCP was $80M on $4B+ base — too small to drive 7pp decline. Very low probability of breaching 108%.

CCP normalization and Falcon Flex transition create some metric uncertainty for FY2027 NRR reporting. Post-CCP, some customers may revert to normal purchasing patterns, potentially reducing expansion velocity temporarily. Flex transition captures expansion differently, which could compress reported NRR. But even accounting for both effects, the current 115% level with accelerating NNA suggests structural expansion is intact. Below 108% would require a severe deterioration that contradicts all forward-looking indicators.

Committee assessed REVENUE_DURABILITY as DURABLE with HIGH confidence. 95% subscription revenue, 97% gross retention, 74K+ diversified customers. NRR at 115% recovering. Emerging products growing rapidly (Cloud >$700M, SIEM >$430M at 95% YoY). Expansion engine intact. For NRR to breach 108%, would need catastrophic event worse than the July 2024 outage. Probability approximately 10%.