RuncheyResearch
Back to Forecasting

CRWD Forecast Markets

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

8
Active Markets
19%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 21, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will CrowdStrike receive a DOJ/SEC enforcement action, Wells notice, or criminal charge related to the Carahsoft revenue recognition investigation by January 31, 2027?

Active
23%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will CrowdStrike's net dollar retention rate fall below 108% in any reported quarter during FY2027?

Active
10%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified AI product revenue (Charlotte AI or agentic capabilities) exceeding $100 million ARR by Q2 FY2027 earnings?

Active
17%
Likely No
94% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will CrowdStrike report YoY revenue growth below 18% in any quarter during the first half of FY2027?

Active
14%
Likely No
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will CrowdStrike's gross dollar retention rate fall below 95% in any disclosed metric during FY2027?

Active
13%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will any major independent survey show Microsoft Defender exceeding 20% enterprise endpoint security market share by the end of calendar year 2026?

Active
16%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified SGNL integration metrics by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?

Active
50%
Likely No
89% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any CrowdStrike officer or director make an open-market stock purchase by January 31, 2027?

Active
7%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Sep 30, 2026
Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified AI product revenue (Charlotte AI or agentic capabilities) exceeding $100 million ARR by Q2 FY2027 earnings?
Prediction: 17%
Sep 30, 2026
Will CrowdStrike report YoY revenue growth below 18% in any quarter during the first half of FY2027?
Prediction: 14%
Sep 30, 2026
Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified SGNL integration metrics by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?
Prediction: 50%
Jan 31, 2027
Will CrowdStrike receive a DOJ/SEC enforcement action, Wells notice, or criminal charge related to the Carahsoft revenue recognition investigation by January 31, 2027?
Prediction: 23%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any major independent survey show Microsoft Defender exceeding 20% enterprise endpoint security market share by the end of calendar year 2026?
Prediction: 16%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any CrowdStrike officer or director make an open-market stock purchase by January 31, 2027?
Prediction: 7%
Mar 31, 2027
Will CrowdStrike's net dollar retention rate fall below 108% in any reported quarter during FY2027?
Prediction: 10%
Mar 31, 2027
Will CrowdStrike's gross dollar retention rate fall below 95% in any disclosed metric during FY2027?
Prediction: 13%