Back to Forecasting
CRWD Forecast Markets
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
8
Active Markets
15%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will CrowdStrike receive a DOJ/SEC enforcement action, Wells notice, or criminal charge related to the Carahsoft revenue recognition investigation by January 31, 2027?
20%
Likely No
23%20%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update — 11 months of DOJ/SEC silence, zero mention in earnings call, class action dismissed
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will CrowdStrike's net dollar retention rate fall below 108% in any reported quarter during FY2027?
6%
Likely No
10%6%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: NRR stable at 115%, CCP accounts expanding >2x initial value above company average, record $331M NNA
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified AI product revenue (Charlotte AI or agentic capabilities) exceeding $100 million ARR by Q2 FY2027 earnings?
19%
Likely No
17%19%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: Charlotte AI ARR tripled YoY, usage 6x, AIDR grew 5x — but still no dollar figure disclosed
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will CrowdStrike report YoY revenue growth below 18% in any quarter during the first half of FY2027?
7%
Likely No
14%7%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: revenue grew 23% YoY (accelerating), Q1 FY2027 guided 23-24%, FY2027 guided 22-23%, record pipeline +49% YoY, NNA $331M +47% on clean base
97% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will CrowdStrike's gross dollar retention rate fall below 95% in any disclosed metric during FY2027?
7%
Likely No
13%7%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: GDR confirmed at 97% through full post-outage renewal cycle. CCP accounts above company average retention. Critical GDR disclosure gap resolved.
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will any major independent survey show Microsoft Defender exceeding 20% enterprise endpoint security market share by the end of calendar year 2026?
15%
Likely No
16%15%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: Azure Marketplace coopetition partnership, endpoint acceleration 2nd consecutive quarter, 1,800+ AI apps on endpoints
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified SGNL integration metrics by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?
38%
Likely No
50%38%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: SGNL closed Feb 2026 (now Signal AI), management said 'minimal organic contribution' and 'integration-first before scaling go-to-market,' combined SGNL+Seraphic NNA of $5-8M
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will any CrowdStrike officer or director make an open-market stock purchase by January 31, 2027?
5%
Likely No
7%5%after Q4 FY2026 earnings: record results (first GAAP profit, $330.7M net new ARR, Charlotte AI ARR tripled) failed to trigger any insider purchase. Corporate buyback only.
98% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Sep 30, 2026
Will CrowdStrike report YoY revenue growth below 18% in any quarter during the first half of FY2027?Prediction: 7%
Sep 30, 2026
Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified SGNL integration metrics by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?Prediction: 38%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any CrowdStrike officer or director make an open-market stock purchase by January 31, 2027?Prediction: 5%
Mar 31, 2027
Will CrowdStrike's net dollar retention rate fall below 108% in any reported quarter during FY2027?Prediction: 6%
Mar 31, 2027
Will CrowdStrike's gross dollar retention rate fall below 95% in any disclosed metric during FY2027?Prediction: 7%