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Will CrowdStrike disclose quantified SGNL integration metrics (ARR, customer adoption, or revenue contribution) by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call?

Resolves September 30, 2026(216d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

50%
Likely No
Model Agreement89%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedFebruary 21, 2026

Why This Question Matters

SGNL is the test case for CrowdStrike's M&A execution capacity during organizational strain. The $740M acquisition in January 2026 was one of 5 deals totaling $2.0B+ in 14 months, executed during post-outage recovery. The Consolidation Calibrator classified M&A strategy as DISCIPLINED based on the Humio precedent ($430M+ ARR SIEM from ~$400M acquisition). If SGNL integration metrics are disclosed within 2 quarters (matching the Humio pattern), it validates the DISCIPLINED assessment. Non-disclosure would deviate from the established pattern and escalate CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT toward QUESTIONABLE, suggesting execution bandwidth is being stretched.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 42%57%Aggregate: 50%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
52%

The Humio precedent (metrics within 2-3 quarters) is the strongest evidence for YES. However, SGNL deal closure is expected Q1 FY2027 — if it closes by April 2026, Q2 FY2027 earnings in September 2026 would be only ~5 months post-close. The Humio 2-3 quarter timeline suggests metrics appeared 6-9 months after acquisition, making Q2 FY2027 borderline. CrowdStrike reports Identity Protection as a module category and could disclose identity module growth including SGNL, but the resolution criteria requires SGNL-specific quantified metrics. With 5 concurrent integrations competing for bandwidth, the tight timeline makes this roughly a coin flip.

Humio precedent: 2-3 quarter disclosure timeline puts Q2 FY2027 at the borderlineSGNL deal closure timing (expected Q1 FY2027) compresses available integration periodFive concurrent integrations competing for management bandwidth and disclosure priority
opusRun 2
48%

The question asks about 'any quantified SGNL-specific metric' — a relatively low bar. CrowdStrike could mention SGNL customer count or module adoption during earnings. However, the deal hasn't closed yet, and the resolution window ends at Q2 FY2027 earnings (~September 2026). If the deal closes May 2026, there may be only 4 months of integration by Q2 earnings. Humio's earliest quantified metrics came at roughly the 2-quarter mark. The biggest risk for YES is simply timing — not enough integration time to have meaningful metrics worth reporting. Management may prefer to wait for impressive numbers rather than disclosing early-stage adoption.

Low bar for resolution (any quantified metric) partially offsets tight timelineManagement incentive to wait for impressive numbers rather than disclose early-stage metrics4-5 month integration window may not produce reportable SGNL-specific data
opusRun 3
45%

CrowdStrike has disclosure incentives for the $740M SGNL deal, but the Humio precedent may be misleading. Humio was a product category (SIEM) that CrowdStrike built into a major platform pillar, warranting early standalone disclosure. SGNL as an identity complement may be integrated into the broader Identity Protection module ($435M+ ARR) without standalone breakout. The resolution criteria includes 'identity module revenue including SGNL contribution' which broadens YES conditions, but attributing specific revenue to SGNL within months of close is operationally difficult. The organizational strain (post-outage recovery, DOJ investigation, 5 concurrent integrations) further delays integration metrics.

Humio precedent may not apply — Humio was a platform pillar, SGNL is a module complementSGNL contribution may be bundled into Identity Protection without standalone breakoutOrganizational strain from post-outage recovery and DOJ investigation delays integration focus
sonnetRun 1
55%

CrowdStrike's fiscal calendar matters: Q1 FY2027 = Feb-Apr 2026, Q2 = May-Jul 2026, with Q2 earnings in late Aug/Sep 2026. If SGNL closes by April 2026, there would be 5-6 months of integration by Q2 earnings. CrowdStrike consistently highlights module adoption metrics and identity protection ARR in earnings calls. They will likely discuss SGNL progress, and could quantify identity module growth including SGNL contribution. The relatively low bar of 'any quantified metric' including 'cross-sell adoption rate' or 'customer count' makes YES moderately likely. Analyst questions about a $740M deal will push management toward some quantification.

5-6 months integration time by Q2 earnings if deal closes April 2026CrowdStrike's pattern of quantifying module adoption metrics in earnings callsAnalyst pressure on $740M deal will push toward some disclosure
sonnetRun 2
43%

The key tension: CrowdStrike's IR track record suggests they'll discuss SGNL progress, but 'quantified' is the critical word. Qualitative commentary like 'SGNL integration is progressing well' would NOT resolve YES. In the first 1-2 quarters post-close, numbers may be too small or too early to be meaningful, leading management to defer quantification. The Identity Protection module at $435M+ ARR is a natural vehicle, but if integration is early-stage, management may discuss pipeline and customer interest qualitatively without providing specific SGNL-attributed numbers. The concurrent integration load across 5 deals further reduces the likelihood of SGNL-specific breakout this early.

Qualitative commentary is likely but quantified SGNL-specific metrics require more integration timeEarly-stage numbers may be too small for management to highlightFive concurrent integrations dilute focus on SGNL-specific disclosure
sonnetRun 3
50%

CrowdStrike tracks module adoption obsessively (49% at 6+, 34% at 7+, 24% at 8+). Identity is a major module category. Even stating 'Identity Protection ARR grew to $Xm, including SGNL contribution' would satisfy resolution criteria. Given management's pattern of quantifying acquisition contributions and the materiality of a $740M deal, there's a lean toward YES. But the tight window (deal not yet closed, 5-6 months max integration time), organizational strain from post-outage recovery, and the possibility that SGNL gets bundled into broader identity metrics without specific attribution creates genuine uncertainty. This is essentially a coin flip on timing.

CrowdStrike's obsessive module adoption tracking supports disclosure patternResolution criteria is broad enough to include bundled identity module reportingTiming uncertainty from deal not yet closed makes this genuinely uncertain
haikuRun 1
57%

Humio metrics came within 2-3 quarters post-acquisition. SGNL closes Q1 FY2027, Q2 FY2027 earnings is ~2 quarters post-close. Timeline is consistent with Humio precedent. CrowdStrike routinely quantifies module adoption and identity protection ARR every quarter. A $740M deal demands investor disclosure — analysts will ask pointed questions. Management's strong track record of highlighting acquisition wins suggests they'll provide at least some quantified SGNL data by Q2 FY2027.

Humio precedent: 2-3 quarter disclosure timeline aligns with Q2 FY2027CrowdStrike routinely quantifies module adoption in earnings calls$740M materiality will drive analyst questions requiring quantified responses
haikuRun 2
42%

Five concurrent acquisitions during post-outage recovery. SGNL is the largest and most complex integration. Organizational bandwidth is stretched across DOJ investigation, strategic realignment/layoffs, and multiple integrations simultaneously. Management may focus Q1-Q2 FY2027 earnings narrative on core business recovery metrics and Falcon platform momentum rather than early-stage acquisition metrics. The deal hasn't even closed yet — integration timeline starts from close date, not announcement date.

Five concurrent acquisitions strain integration bandwidthPost-outage recovery and DOJ investigation compete for management focusDeal not yet closed — integration timeline compressed beyond Humio precedent
haikuRun 3
53%

Identity Protection is a key growth vector at $435M+ ARR. SGNL adds continuous identity for human, NHI, and AI identities — a strategic capability. Management tracks and reports module metrics every quarter. The $740M price tag ensures analysts will ask about integration progress, and CrowdStrike's IR team typically provides quantified responses. The resolution criteria is broad enough to include 'identity module revenue including SGNL contribution.' Slight lean toward YES given analyst pressure and CrowdStrike's disclosure patterns, but timing remains the key uncertainty.

Identity Protection at $435M+ ARR provides natural reporting vehicle for SGNL contributionAnalyst pressure on $740M deal will push for quantified disclosureBroad resolution criteria (includes identity module revenue with SGNL contribution) lowers the bar

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CrowdStrike discloses any quantified SGNL-specific integration metric (e.g., SGNL-related ARR, customer count, identity module revenue including SGNL contribution, or cross-sell adoption rate) in Q1 or Q2 FY2027 earnings releases, earnings calls, or investor presentations. Resolves NO if no quantified SGNL-specific metrics are disclosed by the Q2 FY2027 earnings call (expected September 2026).

Resolution Source

CrowdStrike Q1/Q2 FY2027 earnings releases, earnings call transcripts, investor presentations

Source Trigger

SGNL ($740M) integration metrics not disclosed in Q1-Q2 FY2027 earnings

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