Will CrowdStrike report YoY revenue growth below 18% in any quarter during the first half of FY2027 (Q1 or Q2 FY2027)?

Revenue growth is running 20-22% through FY2026 with an accelerating trajectory ($1.10B -> $1.17B -> $1.23B). Q1 FY2027 needs only $1.298B to clear 18% growth on the Q1 FY2026 comp of $1.10B — this is below the guided Q4 FY2026 quarterly run rate of $1.29-1.30B. Management guided FY2027 NNA growth at 'at least 20%' on a higher base, and the ratable subscription model (95%) provides high revenue visibility. The 2-4pp cushion above 18% would require a significant and sudden deceleration that contradicts the current accelerating trajectory.

The closest comp is Palo Alto Networks, which decelerated to 16% revenue growth at comparable ~$5B revenue scale. CrowdStrike is approaching $5B and faces the natural law-of-large-numbers headwind. The post-outage recovery base effect fades in FY2027, revealing the underlying organic growth trajectory which is unproven at this scale. However, CrowdStrike has stronger module adoption dynamics (49% at 6+ modules), the Falcon Flex platform consolidation vehicle, and emerging AI/identity tailwinds that differentiate it from PANW's trajectory. The 18% threshold provides a meaningful 2-4pp buffer below the current 20-22% run rate, making an immediate breach unlikely even with moderate deceleration.

The ratable subscription model (95% of revenue) is the key factor here. Revenue in any given quarter is largely determined by the ARR base entering that quarter plus new ARR added during the quarter. With ending ARR of ~$4.92B growing 20%+, the revenue floor for Q1-Q2 FY2027 is structurally high. Even in a scenario where NNA deteriorates meaningfully (CCP wind-down + DOJ/SEC government pipeline impact), revenue recognition from the existing $4.92B ARR base provides a substantial floor. For revenue growth to fall below 18%, you would need not just slowing new business but actual contraction in the existing base — which contradicts the 74K+ customer base with no concentration risk and NRR tracking above 115%.

Revenue growth at 20-22% with accelerating sequential trajectory. The 18% threshold gives a clear 2-4pp buffer. The ratable subscription model means revenue has high forward visibility — 95% subscription with strong NRR above 115%. Management guided FY2027 NNA at 'at least 20%' growth, which if achieved would sustain revenue growth well above 18%. Both Q1 and Q2 FY2027 need to be checked, but even allowing for 2-3pp natural deceleration from current levels, growth would land at 18-20% — right at the boundary but more likely above than below. The accelerating module adoption and Falcon Flex consolidation provide additional growth vectors.

While the base case favors continued above-18% growth, two risks deserve more weight than the consensus suggests. First, Q2 FY2027 is the harder test: Q2 FY2026 revenue was $1.17B at 21% growth, so Q2 FY2027 needs $1.381B to clear 18%. That requires meaningful sequential growth from the ~$1.30B Q4 FY2026 run rate. Second, the unresolved NNA debate is material — if the Q3 FY2026 acceleration ($265M NNA at +73% YoY) was primarily base-effect recovery rather than genuine acceleration, FY2027 NNA could disappoint as comps normalize. The CCP program ending and DOJ/SEC investigation add tail risk. The question only requires ONE quarter below 18%, increasing the probability versus needing both quarters below.

Management has guided FY2027 NNA growth at 'at least 20%' and raised operating margin guidance to 'at least 24%.' This is a company that has consistently met or exceeded its guidance throughout FY2026 (revenue guidance raised from initial $4.74-4.81B range). The long-term target of $10B ARR by FY2031 requires only ~15% CAGR from the $4.92B base — well below current growth rates. The combination of guided NNA growth, structural expansion from module adoption (49% at 6+), and the ratable revenue model makes a deceleration from 20-22% all the way to below 18% within just 2 quarters extremely unlikely. Data staleness of 113 days is a minor concern given the structural nature of these factors.

Revenue growth 20-22% and accelerating. 18% threshold is 2-4pp below current trajectory. Ratable subscription model (95%) provides strong visibility. FY2027 NNA guided at +20%. Module adoption at 49% at 6+ modules drives expansion. Probability of breaching 18% in either H1 quarter is low but not negligible given scale-based deceleration risk and normalized comps.

PANW decelerated to 16% at similar $5B scale, providing the key historical analog for growth deceleration. However, CrowdStrike has stronger platform dynamics — Falcon Flex, 49% at 6+ modules, Humio SIEM at $430M+. The transition from single-product to platform is more advanced. NRR above 115% and 74K+ customers with no concentration provide durability. Deceleration to sub-18% is a 2-3 year phenomenon at this trajectory, not an immediate H1 FY2027 risk.

ARR base of $4.92B with ratable recognition means Q1-Q2 FY2027 revenue is largely visible from existing contracts. NNA guided at +20% adds incremental growth. CCP wind-down and DOJ/SEC risks are real but unlikely to manifest as a 2+pp growth deceleration within 2 quarters given the lagging nature of revenue recognition. The 18% threshold provides adequate buffer.