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Will CX successfully refinance or redeem the $2B perpetual notes before September 2026 reset?

Resolves September 30, 2026(174d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

67%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cemex has $2B in subordinated perpetual notes resetting September 2026 at 464bps over treasuries. CFO called this prohibitively expensive with liability management underway. Most critical near-term stress point.

FUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 63% – 72%Aggregate: 67%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

72%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

70%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

68%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

65%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

63%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

67%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

68%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

65%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

66%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CX refinances, redeems, or extends at improved terms before September 2026 reset. Resolves NO if notes reset at 464bps.

Resolution Source

CX press release or SEC filings

Source Trigger

September 2026 perpetual notes reset at 464bps over treasuries; CFO called prohibitively expensive

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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