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Will CX Mexico cement volumes grow above 2% in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cemex guided Mexico cement volume growth at 2.5-3%. Social housing and infrastructure programs must translate to actual volumes. Mexico is largest EBITDA contributor with significant FX sensitivity.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 50% – 60%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

55%

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See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

60%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

52%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

50%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

55%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

55%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

52%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

53%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 Mexico cement volume growth >= 2.0% YoY. Resolves NO if below 2.0%.

Resolution Source

CX FY2026 results presentation

Source Trigger

Mexico volume trajectory; social housing and infrastructure must translate to volumes; 2.5-3% guided

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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