Will average jet fuel price remain above $3.00/gallon through H1 2026?

Critical re-reading of resolution criteria: 'Resolves YES if Delta's reported average fuel cost per gallon equals or exceeds $3.00 for both Q1 and Q2 2026. Resolves NO if either quarter averages below $3.00.' Q1 2026 actual fuel cost was $2.62/gallon — definitively below the $3.00 threshold. Since the resolution requires BOTH quarters above $3.00 and Q1 has already been reported below, this market will resolve NO regardless of Q2 fuel prices. The only residual uncertainty is whether Delta might restate Q1 figures (essentially zero probability). This is effectively resolved.

The resolution criteria is unambiguous: 'Resolves NO if either quarter averages below $3.00.' Q1 2026's reported average of $2.62/gal is below $3.00. This condition is already met — the market resolves NO. The only scenario for YES would require Q1 data to be materially revised upward by $0.38+/gal, which would be an unprecedented restatement for a fuel cost figure. Assigning 2% for extreme tail risk of definitional ambiguity or restatement.

Note: The market title ('Will average jet fuel price remain above $3.00/gallon through H1 2026?') could be interpreted as an H1 average, but the binding resolution criteria explicitly requires both individual quarters above $3.00. Under either interpretation, Q1 at $2.62 either (a) fails the 'both quarters' test directly, or (b) makes the H1 average very dependent on Q2 — but $4.30 guidance for Q2 would yield H1 avg of ~$3.46, which WOULD clear on an average basis. However, since the resolution criteria says 'both Q1 and Q2,' the strict reading resolves NO. Assigning 3% for the possibility that resolution applies H1 average interpretation rather than per-quarter.