Will Datadog's initial FY2026 full-year revenue guidance imply growth of 22% or above?

The analysis facts establish that Datadog's FY2025 initial guidance implied 20% growth, ultimately raised to 26%. The guide-and-raise pattern is consistent, with management historically setting conservative initial guidance. At $3.4B+ scale, the base case from the dossier suggests FY2026 initial guidance of 20-22%, placing the 22% threshold right at the upper boundary of expected initial conservatism. RPO growth of 53% YoY and non-AI usage at 12-quarter highs provide momentum that could push initial guidance to 22%+, but the law of large numbers requiring $750M+ in new revenue creates genuine deceleration pressure.

FY2025 initial guidance implied 20% growth, and the consistent guide-and-raise pattern suggests FY2026 initial guidance would land in the 20-22% range. The 22% threshold sits right at the upper edge of the expected initial guidance range. While RPO growth of 53% and non-AI usage at 12-quarter highs suggest strong momentum, the law of large numbers at $3.4B+ scale creates real deceleration pressure on initial guidance. Management has strong incentives to maintain conservatism in initial guidance to preserve the guide-and-raise dynamic.

FY2025 initial guidance implied 20% growth, ultimately raised to 26%. The 22% threshold sits right at the upper edge of where management's historical conservatism pattern would place initial guidance. RPO growth of 53% and broad demand momentum provide reasons management might guide slightly higher than the FY2025 initial pattern, but the law of large numbers at $3.4B+ and management's awareness that markets now expect the guide-and-raise dynamic create incentives to maintain conservatism.

The consistent guide-and-raise pattern shows FY2025 initial guidance of 20% ultimately delivered 26%. If management maintains the same conservatism, initial FY2026 guidance would likely land at 20-22% (below the 22% threshold). At $3.4B+ scale requiring $750M+ in new revenue, the law of large numbers creates genuine deceleration pressure that may force management to set guidance more conservatively than historical patterns suggest.

The guide-and-raise pattern shows FY2025 initial guidance of 20% that delivered 26% — a 6pp conservative buffer. If management repeats this pattern, initial FY2026 guidance would likely be 20-22%, making 22%+ a coin flip with slight lean toward NO. At $3.4B+ scale, the law of large numbers creates genuine deceleration pressure, and the Myth Meter assessment that <20% would shift expectations to STRETCHED suggests management is unlikely to guide aggressively.

The FY2025 guide-and-raise pattern (initial 20% to final 26%) establishes a 6pp conservatism buffer, but at $3.4B+ scale maintaining 22%+ growth requires $750M+ in new revenue against law-of-large-numbers pressure. The 22% threshold sits at the upper edge of management's historical conservatism range. RPO growth and non-AI usage at 12-quarter highs support demand, but OpenAI contract dynamics and hyperscaler spending deceleration create meaningful downside risk.

The guide-and-raise pattern is the dominant factor: FY2025 initial guidance of 20% was raised to 26%, a 6pp spread. If management maintains this conservatism and aims for similar absolute guidance raises, the initial guidance would likely be set at 20-22% to leave room for raises. The Myth Meter assessment that guidance below 20% would signal shift from DEMANDING to STRETCHED expectations suggests management has internal confidence to at least maintain the 20-22% threshold. RPO growth of 53% and strong new logo momentum support the case.

The guide-and-raise pattern is the dominant factor: FY2025 initial guidance of 20% was raised to 26% across quarterly updates, a 6pp miss that management appears to systematically underestimate. RPO growth of 53% YoY (forward visibility) support management maintaining the conservative guardrail at 22%+, though at $3.4B+ scale, the law of large numbers creates genuine deceleration risk.

The guide-and-raise pattern is the dominant factor: FY2025 initial guidance of 20% was raised to 26%. Committee findings state that below 20% guidance would signal deceleration expectations; the consistent pattern and RPO growth of 53% YoY support management maintaining the conservative guardrail at 22%+, though at $3.4B+ scale, the law of large numbers creates genuine deceleration risk.