Will Datadog disclose or confirm that a single customer represents more than 5% of total revenue in Q4 2025 earnings or Investor Day?

The strongest evidence against YES is that the Q4 2025 earnings call — the most natural venue for disclosure — already occurred without any quantitative customer concentration disclosure. The CFO's 'ex-largest customer' framing is telling: management is actively aware of concentration risk and chose to address it indirectly rather than with numbers. This is a deliberate communication strategy to acknowledge the elephant in the room without creating a quotable headline. Investor Day presentations are typically forward-looking strategic events focused on TAM, product roadmap, and long-term targets — not granular customer concentration data. The 10-K will follow SEC rules which only require >10% disclosure, and Datadog has never had a >10% customer. The 5% threshold is entirely voluntary and management just demonstrated on the earnings call that they prefer indirect framing over quantitative disclosure.

There are exactly two remaining resolution events: Investor Day (Feb 12) and the 10-K filing. For the 10-K, the question is moot — SEC rules require disclosure only at >10%, and Datadog has never crossed that threshold. Even if OpenAI is at 7-8% of revenue, there is no regulatory obligation to disclose. For Investor Day, the format matters: these events are designed to showcase product vision, competitive positioning, and long-term financial targets. They are not earnings calls where analysts can press on specific customer metrics. That said, there is a non-trivial scenario where management provides an AI customer cohort breakdown that inadvertently or deliberately implies a single large customer's share. The 'ex-largest customer' framing could evolve into a more specific disclosure at Investor Day. I give this about 10% probability.

Applying base rates: How often do SaaS companies voluntarily disclose that a single customer exceeds 5% of revenue when they are not required to? The answer is almost never. Companies disclose concentration risk when (a) SEC rules require it (>10%), (b) a customer churns and they need to explain the revenue impact, or (c) the customer relationship is a material positive catalyst they want to highlight. Datadog is in none of these situations — the concentration is a risk factor, not a positive story. The 'ex-largest customer' language on the earnings call is the maximum voluntary disclosure we should expect. Management's incentive is clear: avoid creating a headline that the stock could drop on. With the earnings call already passed, the remaining venues (Investor Day, 10-K) are even less likely to produce this disclosure. The only realistic pathway is an analyst directly asking about customer concentration at Investor Day and getting a more specific answer than expected.

The market is essentially asking whether Datadog will voluntarily provide information that (a) they are not required to disclose, (b) would highlight a risk factor for investors, and (c) they just declined to provide on the earnings call. The CFO's 'ex-largest customer' language was carefully chosen — it acknowledges the reality of concentration while avoiding a specific number. This is exactly the behavior you would expect from a management team that knows the number is meaningful but doesn't want it in print. Investor Day is the wrong venue for this kind of disclosure; it's a marketing event for institutional investors. The 10-K will follow standard SEC templates. I see about 6% probability, almost entirely driven by the small chance of an analyst pressing hard at Investor Day and getting a more specific answer than management intended.

I want to steelman the YES case before estimating. Investor Day could include a detailed AI customer segmentation. Datadog disclosed that 14 of the top 20 AI-native companies are customers, and the AI cohort has ~650 customers. If they present a breakdown showing the largest AI customer's contribution to the AI cohort (estimated ~60%), and the AI cohort is 12-15% of revenue, an analyst could back into a single customer being >5%. But this requires (a) Datadog presenting that granular breakdown, (b) the math being clear enough to constitute 'disclosure or confirmation.' Alternatively, during Q&A at Investor Day, an analyst could ask directly: 'Can you confirm whether any single customer exceeds 5% of revenue?' Management would likely deflect. The YES scenario requires either an accidental disclosure through too-granular AI cohort data, or an analyst extracting a more direct answer than management wants to give. Both are low probability but not zero.

The calibration feedback from sibling markets is instructive. The ensemble was insufficiently confident on the revenue growth question (predicted 38% YES, should have been lower) and correctly leaned NO on guidance but with insufficient conviction. The lesson is that when evidence strongly points in one direction, the ensemble should lean harder rather than hedging toward 50%. Here, the evidence overwhelmingly points to NO: (1) the primary disclosure venue (earnings call) already passed with no quantitative disclosure, (2) the CFO deliberately chose indirect language, (3) the 10-K doesn't require it, (4) Investor Day is a strategic event not suited for customer-level financial disclosures, (5) management has negative incentive to volunteer this data. Every signal points the same direction. I'm putting this at 5%.

The earnings call already happened with no quantitative disclosure. CFO used 'ex-largest customer' language that acknowledges but doesn't quantify. Investor Day and 10-K are the remaining events. Neither is a natural venue for voluntary sub-10% customer concentration disclosure. The probability is very low, driven only by the small chance of an Investor Day Q&A producing an unexpectedly specific answer.

I'll take a slightly more optimistic view on YES. Investor Day is specifically designed to provide deeper strategic context than quarterly calls. Datadog may present detailed AI adoption metrics, customer cohort analysis, or product platform data that implicitly reveals concentration. The '14 of top 20 AI-native companies' disclosure is already granular — they may go further. Also, the 'ex-largest customer' framing itself could be elaborated at Investor Day with more specifics (e.g., 'excluding our largest customer who represents X% of revenue'). Companies sometimes use Investor Day to get ahead of narratives, and the OpenAI concentration narrative is well-known on the Street. There is a 12% chance management decides transparency is the better strategy.

The simplest model: management had the opportunity to disclose on the earnings call and chose not to. Investor Day and 10-K are less likely venues for this type of disclosure. The 10-K will follow the SEC template with no >10% customer to report. Investor Day Q&A is the only realistic remaining path, and management will be prepared to deflect. Very low probability at 7%.